1. DUAL QB: Very do-able with just 10 managers, but it will drastically change your draft strategy.  Even I’ve only done a dual QB league once (my first year), so don’t look to me for much advice on where to draft ‘em.  If you’re in the second half of round 1 though, you should definitely look into a WR or QB with your first pick.

2. FAAB:  This one’s VERY IMPORTANT THEREFORE I’LL TYPE IN ALL CAPS! Just kidding.  That’s just too annoying.   Keep in mind that this is my first year using FAAB also (I think this is just the second year of its existence) so I’m just as new to it as you guys.  The basic concept though, is that you have $100 to spend for the year on players on waivers (players that are dropped from a team are on waivers for 2 days, ask me for more info if you need it *cough* Dan Choi*cough*), and the person who bids the most for a player within the 2 day waiver period gets that player.  THERE IS NO WAIVER PRIORITY!! It’s just who bids the most.  Keep in mind that if you spend too much on 1 player, you will have less to spend later.  I presume that once you spend all your money, you will always have to wait for a player to clear waivers (no bids) to pick him up, which sucks.  Here’s to hoping it’s a more fun waiver system and I don’t blow it all on 2 guys!

3. MONEY!! This year, we will be playing for $10, with the payout going to the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd place finishers at $65, $25, $10, respectively.  NOTHING FOR REGULAR SEASON WINNER!!

And now, what you’re all simply dying to read…

WHAT TEEKAY SAY(S) ABOUT YAHOO’S TOP 100

*btw, this is NOWHERE NEAR as detailed as I want it to be.  I was unable to work on this in the weeks leading up to the draft due to school work, so the analyses are relatively short and/or shallow since this is really pointless if it doesn’t come out before our draft*

1. Chris Johnson.  He had a season for the history books, recording over 2500 yards from scrimmage (NFL record), scored 16 touchdowns, and outscored fantasy’s no. 2 point-getter by 72 points.  No, I do not think he will have such success again, and yes, I believe that he will lose goal line touches (perhaps to the much bigger rookie LeGarrette Blount), but it would take a very large pair of somethings to pass on this guy with the no. 1 pick after the season he had.  Some food for thought here: Of CJ’s 14 rushing touchdowns last year, just 6 came from within 10 yards of the endzone, and the average length of his tds was 35 yards.  His 2 receiving tds went for 66 and 69 yards.  Yeah, this guy was scary good.  However, it seems very similar to what DeAngelo Williams did 2 years ago, scoring from 50+ yards out routinely one season, then a big dropoff the next.  Players who break significant records tend to have a big letdown the next season, though to CJ’s credit, they usually don’t break those records in their 2nd season.  However, only because I know just how hard it would be for him to repeat this season, I would strongly consider taking someone else at this spot, but wouldn’t recommend it.

2. Adrian Peterson: As of today, August 4th, 2010, Brett Favre is going to retire.  This… complicates things, to say the least.  First, let’s look at some objective stats: AP’s ypc (yards per carry) went down each year so far in his short career, from a monster 5.6 to a very nice 4.8 to an above average 4.4.  His TD totals went from 13 to 10 to 18.  His rushing yardage went from 1341 to 1760 and back down to 1383.  Damn, talk about volatility!  But, the most concerning stat to worry about for our league settings are his receptions, which went from 19 to 21 to a very nice 43 last year with Favre.  The question is whether the spike in receptions was Favre’s influence or not, because if so, it will go back down to the 20 range, which would probably push him down to the no. 3 spot for our FOLD league’s purposes.  If that’s not enough for you to pass on him with the no. 2 spot, remember that either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels will be at the helm for Minnesota next year…. I bet most of you just went ‘Who?’ while reading that.  Thank you for proving my point.

3. Maurice-Jones Drew. Contrarily to Peterson, Mojo Drew is in the same situation he was in last year.  Mojo is one of the rare few left that has the backfield completely to himself, and with the Jags’ lack of enough talent in the QB and WR positions, the team will again be focused around him.  In 4 seasons, Mojo has only gone under 14 total tds once, and you can expect him to be up there once more.  And unlike AP, Mojo has never gone UNDER 40 receptions in a season, with a high of 62.  Last season was his first as a full time starter, and he surpassed everyone’s expectations.  This guy is basically a rich man’s Ray Rice, with more TDs.  I am personally taking MJD over AP any day.

4. Ray Rice: He’s coming off a quietly amazing (does that make sense?) season.  Over 2000 yards from scrimmage, including a 5.3 ypc rushing average, and an absolutely monstrous 78 receptions (a little perspective: Randy Moss had 83).  He scored 8 times last year, which pales in comparison to the top 3, but is still a decent total.  However, only 3 of those were from 10 yards or less, and only 1 from 5 yards or less (a 2 yarder).  It’s tough to predict how many goal-line touches he’ll see, but I think 8 tds is a reasonable floor to expect/hope for from him, considering the amount of touches he should get. It’s almost a guarantee that Rice will lose receptions though. First, just cause 78 from a RB is ridiculous.  Second,  Baltimore finally has a real go-to guy in the receiving corps with Anquan Boldin, and Rice won’t get as many of those holy-crap-none-of-my-receivers-are-open-cause-they-suck-here-you-go dumpoffs from still maturing QB Flacco.  BUT Rice has a very high potential ceiling and is playing on a very solid team.  He should make a nice cornerstone for any team, but just remember that RR doesn’t have much of a track record, so a regression (a la Matt Forte, Steve Slaton) is definitely possible.

5. Michael Turner: should get a ton of TDs.  17 in his first year with Atlanta, and 10 last year even though he only played in 10 games.  Unfortunately, he has 22 career receptions in 86 games, so don’t expect much help there.  Did you know?  Only 7 running backs had more 20+ yard rushes than Turner, even though Turner only played in 10 games (technically 11, but he left one game after his first carry, so it doesn’t count).  If Burner Turner plays a full 16 games, you can pretty much lock in 1400 yards and 14 tds at least, but the burning question is whether or not he’ll play all 16.  If you recall last year, I mentioned the ‘curse of 370′, where RBs in the past have tended to break down or start to break down after a season where they received 370+ carries.  Most notable in recent memory is Larry Johnson.  Could Turner’s injury last year be a sign of things to come?  Or will his lack of career carries help him overcome the curse?  Stay tuned, kids.

6. Frank Gore: Gore’s always been a great player, but was unfortunate to be on such a terrible team.  However/finally, the 49ers made some big strides last year, most notably qb Alex Smith and te Vernon Davis, lessening the pressure on Gore, leading to him having his best season since the 2006 season.  As a result, Gore’s tds went from an average of 7.66 from ’06-’08 to a nice 13 in ’09.  Couple that with his average of 52 receptions since he became a starter, and you’re getting some good value here.  Be wary though, as he’s missed 1, 2, and 2 games in the past 3 seasons, and also received his lowest number of carries as a starter last year.  In fact, his number of carries has gone down in 4 consecutive seasons starting from his monster ’06 season.  Hmmm.  With RBs not as high demand as in the past, I would definitely considering taking a top WR or QB here instead, but we’ll have to see.

7. Andre Johnson: PPR monster.  He plays in an offense and with a QB that love to throw, so you know he’s going to get his.  He’s developed a very nice rapport with Matt Schaub, as evidenced by his stats for the last 2 years.  He led the league last year with 1569 receiving yards, outdistancing 2nd place Wes Welker by more than 200 yards!  A freak athlete with sure hands, you won’t regret taking him this early in the draft.  The only knock on him is his lack of tds (never had a double digit td season), but you have to take into account that he played with David Carr at the helm for years, and in 3 years with Schaub, last year was the first time Schaub was able to play all 16 games.  If they can play a full 16 together again, AJ should have no trouble getting to 10+ tds.  Even if you’re like me, and are wary of taking a WR this early, come on, are you really going to pass on the best fantasy wideout for a RB with huge question marks attached to him?  No, you won’t.. especially cause most of you are new or still new to the game anyway and don’t even understand my need to draft RBs early, so I guess I just answered my own question.

8. Ryan Matthews: Hmm… a rookie ranked in the top 10?  Crazy.  Unfortunately, I don’t really follow college football, so I have no idea what this guy is like outside of his statistics.  The Chargers seem confident in him though, which says a lot.  He’s being brought in to start and replace the legendary Tomlinson, so he’s got some shoes to fill.  Don’t expect much in terms of receptions though, as he only had 19 throughout his college career.  This also means that he’ll likely be sitting on a lot of 3rd downs in favor of Sproles, who is an excellent receiver out of the backfield, though Matthews should still get a huge share of the touches.  I know that guys expected to have full time rb gigs are valuable, but a rookie? In the top 10?  The first few rounds of a draft should be about the FLOOR of a player’s value, not the CEILING.  Draft at your own risk.

9. Randy Moss: In contrast to Andre Johnson, Moss has only had 3 (out of 12) seasons where he HASN’T hit double digit TDs.  He has the potential to reach 100+ receptions too, though since he’s such a longball threat and each reception goes for such long gains, he usually doesn’t pass the 80 range.  He took a lot of knocks for his lazy play last year, yet still had a 83-1264-13 line.  Dude, if that’s a lazy year, I’m all for it.  Brady’s another year removed from surgery, and should be able to improve upon last year (which means Moss should too).  Oh, did I mention that Moss is entering the last year of his contract and he wants to play again next year? He’ll have a chip on his shoulder to show every other team out there that he hasn’t lost his edge to maximize his next contract.

10. Reggie Wayne: This guy is an elite WR, no question.  ANY wr who plays with Peyton Manning is worth drafting or keeping an eye on, but when you’re the top dog, that’s pretty money.  However, as good as he is, Peyton is known for spreading the TDs around (did you know that one year, 3 different WRs in Indy had 1000+ yards and 10+ tds?  THREE!  How ridiculous is that??), and consequently, Wayne has only hit the double digit TD mark 3 times in 9 seasons.  If Moss is still on the board, you take him over Wayne, hands down, but if Moss is gone, Wayne is an absolutely great consolation pick.

11. Shonn Greene: Wayyyyy too high for me.  Yes, he showed some serious skills last year, but comes with too many question marks to draft him this early for me.  First, the sample size is small.  Only 108 carries in the regular season, at which he ran at an elite 5.0 clip.  But, opposing teams didn’t know this guy.  Rather, they didn’t care.  They were preparing for Thomas Jones, who was dominant last year.  Also, take a guess at how many receptions this guy had last year.  No, seriously, guess.  Zero.  A BIG FAT ZERO!  If you include 3 playoff games, he has 1.  Dude… really?  If you guys don’t remember, the Jets signed Ladainian Tomlinson, and while experts/scouts say he won’t be getting that many touches, LT is a superb pass catcher.  Greene will be sitting on a lot of 3rd downs, and is very likely to lose goal line touches to someone, whether it’s LT or not.  Wanna know why the fantasy world is so high on him, though?  The Jets ran the ball 607 times last year, good for first in the league.  Carolina is in second, with just 525, 1 of only 3 teams to even surpass 500.  Everyone is drooling over the possible 300+ carries for Greene.  If you like risk/reward picks, here’s a very nice one.

12. Steven Jackson: Much like Gore, it has NEVER been a question about talent for Sjax.  Sjax has performed fantasy miracles for being on the Rams, perennial bottom-feeders.  Personally, I want to avoid this guy for a few reasons: 1. he’s on the rams,  2. he’s missed 1, 4, and 4 games his last 3 seasons, respectively,  3. he’s on the rams, and 4. did I mention he’s on the rams?  The top scoring (in terms of tds) team last year, the Saints, scored 56 touchdowns on offense.  The Rams? Dead last (yeah, under Oakland.  Oakland!), at 16.  Come on, really?  16 total touchdowns on offense?  There are quarterbacks that will pass for 16 tds and be fantasy garbage, but as a TEAM you have 16??  4 rushing tds, and 12 passing.  See, no matter how good Sjax is, he simply doesn’t get enough scoring opportunities on this team.  But wait!  There’s a silver lining here.  Don’t be too afraid to take him as your top rb.  Surprisingly, he still scored more fantasy points last year than ANY wr, so he’ll still get the job done.  Just, don’t cry to me when he never scores.  Gotta take the good with the bad, right?

13. Rashard Mendenhall: I have no idea why this guy is ranked so high.   He’s ranked this high because he’s one of the few rbs left that has no competition for carries.  He was able to amass 1300 yards and 8 tds while only starting 13 of the 16 games, but if he repeats his numbers from last year, that would be a success, and that’s just simply not good enough for the no. 8 overall pick.  The reason why I say a repeat would be a success is simple: the Steelers’ starting QB Ben Roethlisberger is suspended a minimum of 4 games (possibly 6 games), and with the Steelers having their bye in week 5, this means that Big Ben won’t be back on the field until week 6 or 8.  Not to mention that Pitt traded their top receiver (Santonio Holmes) to the Jets following off-field issues, leaving them vulnerable in the passing game.  Defenses will be able to key in on Mendenhall, and he won’t achieve such success as easily, and I say the term success loosely here, as he only had 3 100+ yard rushing games last year anyway.  I’d look elsewhere, personally.  *EDIT*  Originally, when I started this, he was ranked 8.  Since, he’s been discounted 5 spots, and is now a decent value pick in the second round, though I’m still not high on him.

14. Calvin Johnson: Sigh.  One of those players again.  Consistently called a once-in-a-decade talent, he’s very hard to evaluate.  He’s entering just his 4th year, and only had 1 dominant fantasy season (ironically, when the Lions went 0-16).  He has the potential to be Randy Moss at a discount, and playing on a bad team doesn’t hurt him much since he’s a receiver because teams throw more when they’re trailing, but he only had 984 yards and 5 tds last year.  His production will depend largely on Stafford’s growth (he only threw 12 tds last year, to 20 picks in 10 games), so you’ll have to watch the preseason to really see how far Stafford has come.  He honestly just… sucked last year though so… I don’t know what to expect.  I’m hoping for big things though!  I have CJ in a keeper league

15. DeAngelo Williams: I don’t know what to think about this guy.  Many of you know that he’s one of my favorite players, but he’s hard to evaluate for fantasy purposes.  IRL, this guy is sick nasty.  On 754 career carries, he’s averaging 5.1 ypc, which is just ridiculous.  However, he went from 20 total tds in 2008 to just 7 in 2009.  Jonathan Stewart has also gotten more involved, and actually put up better numbers than D-Will last year.  While D-Will’s skills and explosiveness are hard to deny, the fact that he’s in a RBBC (running-back-by-committee) is definitely cause for concern.  On the plus side, some of his decline can be attributed to the fact that Delhomme was incredibly bad at QB for the Panthers last year before he finally got traded, and more consistent play there will definitely help.  D-Will is also entering a contract year, which usually motivates players to have great statistical years for a better contract the next time around.  I expect big things and want him on my team, but just not sure about taking him to be my top RB, especially if there are some elite QBs still on the board.  While D-Will’s potential is high, in all likelihood he won’t perform up to his draft position due to the rbbc.  You can get similar value in later rounds.

16. Aaron Rodgers: A-Rodg was the second highest scoring fantasy QB in his first year as a starter, and he improved on that last year by beating out Brees for the top spot (by over 50 points too!).  He improved on his ’08 season across the board:completions, pass percentage, yardage, tds, interceptions, rush yards, and rush tds.  Actually, in a dual qb league, you could justify taking A-Rodg in the top 5 because of his high point total, but hey call me old fashioned, but I like to take RBs first whenever possible.  The only reason to take another qb ahead of this guy is because his track record isn’t long enough to warrant FULL confidence a la Brees or Manning, but Rodgers’ situation hasn’t changed much, if at all.  I’m expecting another top 3 performance here.

17. Drew Brees: Normally a sure-fire pick, this year it might be a bit iffy.  Why, you ask?  The Madden curse, that’s why!  The curse is still alive, though because it affected a defensive player (Troy Polamalu) last year, many have forgotten about it.  Troy got hurt and only played in 5 games last year, when he was on the cover.  Fitzgerald was not affected by it, though he shared the cover appearance.  I guess it only hits 1 player at a time, or maybe it delayed the effect on Fitz, who’ll likely take a dip in value this year.  But either way, it doesn’t bode well for Brees, who is the sole player on the cover this year.  For those who are not superstitious, though, Brees, similarly to Rodgers, is poised for a repeat season.  After 2 seasons of throwing for 34 tds, his situation hasn’t changed much either, and the Saints still love to throw.  They were 4th in the league last year in passing yards per game, and it will likely stay up there this year.  Draft him, and hope the curse doesn’t tear his ligaments.

18. Brandon Marshall: This guy is an elite, athletic talent, no doubt.  3 straight seasons of 100+ receptions and 1100+ yards, and he is the only legitimate option at WR for the Dolphins.  His team change from Denver to Miami is at least a little bit worrisome though.  They only had 15 passing tds last year (Marshall caught 10 tds last year with Denver, who had 21 passing tds), but we could put a big part of the blame on the fact that Miami had no go-to receivers.  Marshall will receive the lion’s share of the looks from qb Chad Henne, who isn’t much of a downgrade (if at all) from Kyle Orton.  Marshall’s fantasy value should stay in tact.

19.  Roddy White: Hot Roddy! Last year I predicted a decline in yardage and TDs with Atlanta’s addition of TE Tony Gonzalez, and while Roddy’s yardage certainly went down, his TDs went up significantly, from 7 to 11!  QB Matt Ryan showed his reliance on Roddy (and Tony) last year, and he’ll continue to do so.  Roddy is the only legitimate WR on the team, and the only other target would be Gonzalez.  There’s a very realistic shot that Roddy breaks the 90 catch mark (most receptions for him so far is 88), and I’m betting he gets past 100.

20. Larry Fitzgerald: He may be one of my favorite receivers in the league, but I’m avoiding him like the plague this year.  Not the kind of plague that kills everyone who contracts it and spreads like wildfire, leaving only death in its wake.  Just one of those lesser, curable plagues.  I’ll take him if he falls low enough, but here’s why I don’t want him early: In 13 games where Fitz has played with Leinart starting at QB, he has only 5 TDs.  And in 2 of those games, where Boldin was not playing due to injury, Fitz has none.  With Boldin gone to Baltimore, defenses will definitely be able to key in on Fitz more (seriously, Boldin’s nasty too) as he loses his protection.  To top it off, Warner retired and Leinart will be starting, who has been a literal fantasy plague for Arizona when starting.  He lowers the value of the receivers and the RBs.  Granted, it’s been a couple of years since he’s last started and he could be drastically improved, but I’m not willing to take a chance this early in the draft to bank on that.  I’d MUCH rather have the 23rd ranked Miles Austin.  Fitz is elite, arguably the best, and will often times make Leinart look better than he really is, sure.  But I’ll be very, VERY surprised if he can maintain his fantasy value.

21. Peyton Manning: A perennial top tier qb, this guy is just plain money.  He tied for the lead with Matt Schaub last year in games with over 300 passing yards.  He’s also an iron man, as he’s never missed a game so far in his career!  It’d be nice if he could lower his interception totals, as they were relatively high (for Peyton standards) last year at 16, but he’s pretty much a lock for 4000 yards and 28+ tds.  This guy is one of only 2 players to ever receive 3 MVPs, and I’m betting he gets at least one more before all’s said and done. The Colts have an awesome receiving core, with Wayne, Garcon, Gonzalez, and Collie, and an elite TE in Dallas Clark.  Not to mention the ground game has been struggling in recent years, putting the game in Peyton’s hands more often.  Sit back and enjoy the show.

22. Ryan Grant: Had a very nice year for fantasy owners last year.  Should repeat this year.  He has no real competition for carries, so getting close to 300 is again a possibility.  Due to the sheer number of carries, you can expect 1200+ yards, but you have to hope he keeps his TD total from last year.  He went from 4 two years ago to 11 last, and with Green Bay’s offense, he should still see enough scoring opportunities.  He definitely loses some goal line tds to Rodgers though, as Rodgers likes to run it in himself  a lotwhen they’re close enough.  8 games last year with 0-1 reception though, so don’t expect PPR help here.

23. Miles Austin: This guy came out of absolutely nowhere last season.  He wasn’t even starting until week 4 or 5, but once he got the nod, he never looked back.  The Cowboys didn’t add any significant help at WR, outside or drafting Dez Bryant, but I have doubts that a rookie receiver will impact Austin’s looks that much, not to mention that Bryant is hurt and will miss most if not all of the preseason.  I was able to watch Austin in a couple of games last year (on TV), and he’s legit.  He knows what to do, does it well, and has a great rapport with qb Romo.  Even though he wasn’t a starter for 3-4 games last year, I think 1300 and 11 is going to be hard to repeat.  All the defenses know he’s the unquestioned top WR now, and will key in on him much moreso than they did last year.  Should still pass 1000 yards and get close to 10 tds though, and is a great value pick with a high ceiling here.

24. Cedric Benson: Talk about coming out of nowhere, this guy had the bust label almost permanently affixed to his jersey until he broke out in a big way with Cincy.  Cincy transformed themselves into a run-first team, being 1 of just 4 teams to surpass 500 carries as a team, and with no competition for carries, he’ll be getting a ton of carries once again.  Honestly, I’m still not a believer though.  He was absolutely horrendous in previous years, but Cincy’s O-line must’ve made him look good.  Well, more than that, this guy has never played a full season in his career, and he doesn’t catch much.  Couple these two things and my bias against him, and I’m looking elsewhere.

25. Pierre Thomas: Here’s another of one my favorite players, but unfortunately, doesn’t get the dues he deserves.  He’s proven himself time and time again.  When he gets the touches, he does well, as evidenced by his career 5.1 ypc.  However, the Saints simply don’t give him enough carries.  Rather than give their top backs more carries, the Saints seem content to keep everyone fresh by using 3 rbs.  They just won a championship, so don’t expect them to change what’s not broken.  IF he ever got starter’s carries, he’d probably do very, very well.  But until then, I’ll let you guys draft him.

26. Beanie Wells: He’s a decent runner, but come on.  He’s not even listed as the top rb for his team!  Not to mention with Leinart at QB, running will be harder than it was with Warner.  He’ll also lose goal line carries to Tim Hightower.  He also doesn’t catch.  I mean, you can take him if you want.  I’ll just take someone better, thanks.

27. Desean Jackson: What a year for this guy!  He only had 3 games in which he did NOT have at least a 20 yard reception.  He only had 63 receptions, but went for 1167 yards and 9 tds (not to mention a rush td and 2 punt return tds).  This guy is stupid fast, and can score from anywhere.  However, his situation has changed quite a bit.  McNabb is no longer at the helm, and it is now Kevin Kolb.  Kolb showed he can air it out like a champ in limited action last year, but how will he fare over a full season?  Will his rapport with D-Jax be as good as McNabb’s was?  Buncha questions, and unfortunately, no answers until the season starts.  With his skill set, he should be able to repeat, but hey, you never know.

28. Jahvid Best: Actually, I had this guy on my college fantasy team last year, and he truly was the ‘best’ (see what I did there? Best and best? ah nevermind)!  Until he got injured that is.  But that’s besides the point.  Rookie on a bad team, but has the skillset to at least repeat what Kevin Smith did for this team during his rookie year.  And with said Kevin Smith likely to start the season on the PUP and miss the first 6 weeks of the season, Best won’t have much competition for carries.  If Stafford can get the passing game going, Best will certainly take advantage.  28th pick overall is a little early for me, but with quality rbs starting to run thin, he could be a nice value pick here.

29. Tony Romo: Very nice qb value here to get Romo at the end of the 3rd round.  He’s not as consistent as Peyton Manning, but he scored just as many fantasy points and comes at almost a full round discount.  No significant changes to the team also, so he should be able to repeat.  Not sure if he can keep his interception totals so low again though (9), as he tends to be a little reckless, but with new favorite target Miles Austin back, and rookie Dez Bryant to help take the pressure off of Austin and Roy Williams, this might even be another 30+ td year.

30. Greg Jennings: took a pretty large dip in value last year, with his receptions dropping from 80 to 68, losing about 200 yards, and most importantly, going from 9 to just 4 tds (12 to 9 to 4, if you go from 2007).  While he’s still a top target for a top tier qb, A-Rodg appears to be spreading the wealth quite a bit.  Despite another prolific season from him, no one on the team topped 70 receptions, with the top 3 going 70, 68, and 55.  Also, despite 30 passing/receiving tds, no one finished with more than 6, with 9 different players catching at least 1.  Jennings is a lock to hit at least 1100 yards, but his decreasing td trend is scary.  He’ll be a useful fantasy receiver, but I think he’s ranked a bit too high.

31. Steve Smith (Car): While he’s always been highly regarded, you have to think, is he really still the best receiver named Steve Smith?  Had an amazingly disappointing season last year, failing to break 1000 yards since 2004, where he only played in 1 game.  However, much of it was due to Delhomme’s ineffectiveness at QB for most of the season.  In the 4 games he played with Matt Moore as the starting qb last year, Smith had 20 receptions for 378 yards and 3 tds.  That looks very promising for the unfortunate receiver who had to play with Delhomme for years.  Before you jump on the bandwagon though, here’s a little food for thought: Smith will enter the ’10 season at the age of 31, and he hasn’t played a full 16 games since 2005.  Hmmmmm.

32. Marques Colston: Another player that I like, this guy was one of the LAST picks in his draft class, yet turned into an instant star.  One of the few receivers to be able to boast a 1000 yard season in his rookie year, he’s now entering year 5 with Drew Brees.  Their connection is high, as he is by far the favorite target of Brees, leading the team with 70 receptions, outpacing second place Devery Henderson by 19.  But still, 70 receptions is not really all that much.  Brees also likes to spread the wealth, similarly to A-Rodg.  10 different people caught a td for the Saints last year, though 2 caught 9 and the next highest was 3.  I’d love to see another season like 2007 (98-1202-11), but sadly I don’t think it’ll happen again for quite some time.  The Saints have too many options to throw to, limiting Colston’s value.  However, his ranking is just about right, as he is one of the last receivers on the board with a legit chance to reach 10+ tds.

33. LeSean McCoy: Hmm.. I really liked this value pick here at first, but after looking at some gamelogs, I’m not so sure anymore.  McCoy, very similarly to the recently departed Westbrook, is a multi-dimensional threat who can play all 4 downs, but he doesn’t have a track record.  In limited action in his rookie year, he performed admirably, but even when Westbrook wasn’t playing, the Eagles split the carries between McCoy and fullback Leonard Weaver.  Slightly concerning, I must say, but I don’t expect Weaver (or anyone else, for that matter) to take much of McCoy’s touches away.  What’s more concerning is the Eagles’ play-calling.  Guess which team ranked dead last in rushing attempts last year?  If you guessed the Eagles, well, you’re wrong, but you’re not far off!  They ranked 28th, just ahead of the Bears (last place is Arizona, by the way).  The lack of carries he’ll get is definitely a turnoff, but his pass catching ability will help mitigate it at least.

34. Jamaal Charles: Wow, talk about a fantasy savior!  This guy wasn’t really getting carries until week 10, and he never looked back.  Since week 10, he ran for 968 of his 1120 yards at a 5.4 ypc clip.  Oh, he also scored all 8 of his tds in that stretch.  Also a good pass catcher, with 40 receptions on the year.  Did I mention that he plays for the Chiefs?  WOW!  This guy was absolutely poised for fantasy superstardom… until the Chiefs signed FA rb Thomas Jones.  Hmm, ok.  So he’ll lose goal line tds to Jones, no big deal, right? He’ll still get the ton of carries that he deserves.  Wait a minute… Jones is the starter?  Uh oh.  Jones is a good runner, who hasn’t slowed down after hitting 30 like most other rbs, and he’s powerful and will get the goal line carries for sure.  Jamaal’s value takes a HUGE hit if he doesn’t get at least 70% of the carries.  Best case scenario is that the Chiefs announced Jones as the starter as a motivational tactic, but either way, it doesn’t bode well for Charles and that just makes him too risky a pick here.

35. Jonathan Stewart: Awesome value here.  Not sure why he’s ranked this low, as he outperformed his fellow rb teammate DeAngelo Williams last year, yet comes at a 20 pick discount.  Yes, D-Will is probably faster and more explosive (I say probably because I haven’t seen Stewart play), but what matters in fantasy are stats and stats only.  He ran at a 5.1 clip last year, and scored 10 rushing tds for the second year in a row.  With Carolina still looking to be a power running team with what’s got to be the best RB tandem in the league, you can be sure that Stewart will have another solid year.  A little concerning is his current preseason injury, but I have a feeling it won’t be affecting him too much this season.  He was battling an Achilles injury last preseason, and didn’t miss a game.

36. Matt Schaub: If you missed out on the top 3 quarterbacks, don’t worry about it.  There’s plenty of good value at qb left.  Schaub, for example, scored the 3rd highest amount of fantasy points at the qb position: more than Favre, more than Manning.  You can grab him at a 15 pick discount compared to Manning too.  Houston is a pass first team, and you would be too if you had Schaub at qb, and Andre Johnson as your top wr.  They ranked 4th as a team in the NFL in pass attempts, and you can be sure they’ll do it again.  Schaub has always been a prolific passer who’s underachieved a bit his first 2 years with Houston, but last year he finally took a spot amongst the fantasy elite.  Yes, he missed 5 games each of his first 2 seasons as a starter with Houston, but those were from illegal hits that were flagged on the field, so he’s far from soft.  With 10 multi td games compared to just 3 multi interception games last year, you have to be considering whether even drafting any of the top 3 qbs is worth it when you can get this guy so much later.

37. Anquan Boldin: Though he’s been in Larry Fitzgerald’s shadow for most of his career, don’t be fooled: this guy can play.  His move to Baltimore instantly makes him their go-to guy,with their only other viable option at wr being the ancient Derrick Mason (who’s still good for fantasy purposes, actually).  His main competition for receptions will be rb Ray Rice, but qb Flacco will surely lean on Boldin in the red zone.  I always get screwed over though when drafting players that switch teams, so I’m a little leery here, and that’s not helped by the fact that he’s played in just 12 games in ’07, 12 in ’08, and 15 last year.  As long as he doesn’t miss too many games though, he’ll make Arizona fans wonder why they didn’t do everything to keep him there.

**Brett Favre: should be around here, probably.  With the recent news of his return, his ranking will definitely rise, but I’m not going to wait for it and edit then, so here he is.  What should I say? He had an amazing year, arguably the best of his career.  The situation hasn’t changed at all either, so you can reasonably expect another top tier year, but the reason he’s not ranked with the top tier is because he’s going to turn 87 years old in a couple of months.  Only 7 picks to 33 touchdowns?? From Favre?? Unheard of.  Don’t expect that to happen again.  He’s reckless with the ball at times, leading to easy picks, and he’s never thrown less than 13 picks in his 400 year career.  I expect something like 14 picks this year, and then a retirement for real.

38. Tom Brady: There’s a nice discount on Brady right now, considering where the other qbs are going, but let me explain to you why.  If you take out his historic 50 td season, he’s just another solid qb.  Outside of that 1 season, Brady has never (NEVER) thrown more than 28 touchdowns, and never less than 12 interceptions.  28-12 is a pretty good fantasy season, but it’s nothing special.  Personally, yes, I am gunning for Brady, for his high ceiling and lower price tag, but try not to expect better than a 28-12 split here.  He’s in a contract year though, so I’m definitely hoping that combined with Moss entering a contract year will push him past the 30 td mark for the second time in his career.

39. Steve Smith (NYG): Another one of those receivers following the 3 year rule, he became an elite fantasy option in his 3rd season, thanks largely in part to Plaxico Burress’s departure.  He quickly became a favorite target of Eli Manning, catching over 107 passes, setting a Giants’ franchise record.  But man, he’s only 5’11″ so his red zone looks are sure to be limited.  What? He led the league in red zone looks last year? What the heck??  Believe it or not, it’s the truth.  But the reason he’s not ranked higher is because the Giants are historically a run first team.  They had a disappointing 8-8 season where their defense stunk it up big time, causing their offense to have to throw more.  They’ll do everything they can to go back to their championship formula of defense+rushing, so a repeat season would be monstrous.

40. Ronnie Brown: No thanks.  He’s burned me 3 years in a row, and you know what they say: fool me once, shame on you.  Fool me twice, shame on me.  Fool me three times and I’M NEVER DRAFTING YOU AGAIN YOU BASTARD!  Ahem, anyway… I was a believer in Ronnie, but he just simply can’t get the job done.  He looked to become one of the best rbs in the league in ’07, then got hurt and played only 7 games.  Came back to play 16 games the next year, but did not play well at all, with his final ’08 stats inflated by a 4 td game in week 2. But as he was coming off major surgery, I kept my faith and came back to him for year 3, in which he started off well again… and then got hurt and played only 9 games.  If you draft this guy, you better do everything you can to get his handcuff, Ricky Williams, cause I just expect him to get hurt yet again.  Oh, and another thing.  The Dolphins have been phasing him out of the receiving game after ’07, where he was averaging 5.5 receptions a game (for 7 games). In the 25 games since, he’s averaged a paltry 1.88.  You deal with the headache.  I’m drafting Ricky so send me a nice trade offer.

41. Dallas Clark: My main man (at least at the TE position) should be the first TE to go off the board.  Used mainly for blocking for the first years of his career, once Marvin Harrison became ineffective, they began to look to Clark to help out in the passing game.  In the past 3 years, since Harrison’s ineffectiveness/retirement, Clark has increased his receptions and yardage in each year, while grabbing an average of 9 tds.  Peyton is leaning on Clark more and more, though honestly it can’t get much better than last year.  100 receptions, 1100 yards, and 10 tds?  Anything more, and he becomes an elite WR, let alone TE!  But you have to optimistic about his chances to repeat as the top TE, cause I know I am.  So much so that I’m keeping him in my keeper league, in fact.    Just put a phone booth near him so Clark can turn into the Superman of TEs! (Cheesy, I know, but… I don’t care what you think so… yeah….).

42. Chad Ochocinco: After a large fall from grace in ’08, he was able to put up a nice but not great fantasy season last year.  However, considering the Bengals were ranked 27th in passing attempts last year, him managing 1000 yards and 9 tds is encouraging.  The Bengals want to be a run first team, but seriously, I don’t know about that.  Carson was always a gunslinger, until he got hurt 2 years ago.  They definitely could have just been being cautious with his arm last year, and may throw a LOT more this year. Not to mention they tried their best to boost their receiving corps by adding Antonio Bryant and T.O.  Oh, they also drafted Jordan Shipley, who’s buried on the depth chart, but is a player I really liked in college.  Shipley is very similar to Wes Welker, in that they’re both white.  He’s also quick and shifty, but that’s not as important.  Ocho will have a lot more competition for receptions, so i’m not sure what to expect, but he’s one of the last reliable receivers left on the board by this point.

43. Sidney Rice: His ranking should rise in coming days, as Favre is set to return to the Vikings, and let me tell you there is NOBODY more thrilled to hear that than Rice should be right now.  He followed the typical 3 year pattern for WRs, going for 1300 and 8 after a combined 500 and 8 in his first 2 years.  Another year with Favre should help him tremendously, though it’s pretty tough in general for a wr to pass 1300 yards.  He could definitely improve on his td totals though.  Either way, he needs to put up numbers cause Favre isn’t going to be around forever, and he needs to show what he’s got before he has to play with Tarvaris Jackson at qb.

44. Antonio Gates: Second TE off the board.  He’s an elite, hall-of-fame bound TE in what looks to be a good situation for him.  LT’s gone, and the Chargers top WR Vincent Jackson is threatening to hold out for the entire season.  If V-Jax doesn’t return, Gates will benefit by getting more looks and receptions.  He always seems to be fighting some minor injury though, which is honestly just annoying, but as long as he can stay healthy I think a career year is in line here.

45. Joseph Addai: Ok, so he’s not an inspiring player, but hey he just scored 13 touchdowns with 1100 total yards, including 51 receptions.  He scored more fantasy points last year than Jon Stewart, Mendenhall, DeAngelo Williams, LT, Marion Barber, etc.  Addai also has no immediate competition for carries, as backup Donald Brown only had 78 carries last year to Addai’s 219.  Go where the points lie.

46. Philip Rivers: Officially the last top tier qb, he’s a nice value pick here.  But wait, will he be able to have another good year?  With top target Vin Jackson holding out, things will get tougher for Rivers.  The incumbent starting RB is also a rookie, and if he can’t get it done, there’ll be even more pressure on Rivers.  I don’t think he’ll have a Cutler-esque fallout, but a regression looks likely.

47. Vernon Davis: Finally, in his 4th year, Davis lived up to the huge expectations people had of him.  Davis and qb Alex Smith have a nice connection going on, as no qb in the league threw a larger percentage of his passes (29.8%) to his TE than Smith.  With Davis’ athleticism, he should be able to have another solid year, especially as Smith and the 49ers improve as a team.  13 tds from the TE position is a bit much, but it’ll be tough for Davis to disappoint this season.

48. Hakeem Nicks: behind Steve Smith on the Giants’ depth chart, he’s poised for a breakout year.  With another year under his belt, look to Eli to lean on Nicks more than he did last year.  Yes, he’s currently listed as the no. 3 wr behind Manningham, but no one expects Manningham to stay there long.  Still, I wouldn’t take Nicks this high.  Plenty of guys ranked lower that I’d take before him.  Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

49. Knowshon Moreno: Not exactly a pro bowl year for Moreno, but I guess since he was a rookie I can cut him some slack.  Yes, he’ll receive about 70% of the snaps at rb for Denver, but he’s not exaclty awe-inspiring.  He ran at a meager 3.8 ypc, and his longest run of the season was just 36 yards, despite 247 carries.  In fact, he only had TWO carries over 20 yards.  He did have 9 total tds, which is pretty nice this late in the draft, but two of those came in week 17, which is irrelevant to us.  At this point, you’re just drafting him because of the carries he’ll get, and hope he can do something with em.

50. Dwayne Bowe: This guy… Not sure what to say about him.  After making an impact in his rookie year, and following it up with a nice 2nd year campaign, had a terrible offseason and stunk it up big time in his 3rd year, eventually only playing 11 games.  He doesn’t have a lot of competition for looks on the Chiefs: Chris Chambers is washed up, and Dexter McCluster was a rb in college who was just drafted and will likely move to wr.  Bowe can challenge to be a no. 1 fantasy wr, but he definitely needs to stay healthy.  He’s got a lot of upside, statistically, so don’t be too afraid of him, but I will say that he tied for the lead in dropped passes (11) last year, even though he missed 5 games.

51. Michael Bush: He was Oakland’s best rusher by far last year, getting the most carries and rushing at a 4.8 ypc average.  Darren McFadden, on the other hand, despite all the hype ran for jus ta 3.4 average.  Yes, Oakland is an absolutely terrible place to be a professional football player, but they’re looking to improve this year after cutting ties with the pathetic qb Jamarcus Russell (107 passing yards a game?!) and adding still-mediocre-but-much-better-than-russell Jason Campbell.  McFadden’s developed a reputation of being soft, often going down at first contact, and is also battling an injury right now, which only helps Bush.  Neither back helps much in the passing game though, so you just have to hope Oakland can at least be competitive in their games.

52. Hines Ward: Every Korean’s favorite player, Ward proved even 33 year olds can put up big numbers (sorta).  He’s now 34 and shows no signs of slowing down, but a regression is likely this year.  With Big Ben suspended for 4-6 games, you’re stuck with Byron Leftwich and Dennis Dixon at QB, and you don’t want that.  With Ben, they began getting away from their rushing roots and became a pass first team, but without him (and Santonio Holmes), the passing game will struggle, and they’ll likely try to take control of ball games with their ground attack.  Well, honestly, they’ll probably suck and have to throw the ball more anyway, so it should work out, except that the one throwing will suck too, so we’ll see.  Don’t draft him too much based only on last year’s stats, that’s all I’m saying.

53. Jermichael Finley: Not sure why he’s ranked higher than TEs like Tony Gonzalez and Jason Witten, but his ranking is based wayyy too much off of his second half last year.  In the last 6 games of fantasy season (weeks 11-16), Finley amassed 34 receptions (5.6 per game), 382 yards, and 3 tds.  The “experts” believe the second half was his breakout, and that it will continue throughout this season, but honestly A-Rodg spreads the ball around too much for me to really consider Finley a better TE than Gonzo or Witten.  The potential’s there, no doubt.  But I don’t think he’ll be reaching elite status this year.

54. Felix Jones: Yeah, this guy can run.  But, will he get enough carries?  The Cowboys announced Felix as the starter over Marion Barber, but hey, remember when Julius Jones was starting over Barber?  He also tends to be a bit fragile, getting injured somewhat easily.  But when you look at his 6.5 ypc average (albeit only over 146 career carries), you have to be excited.  I don’t know if I’ll draft him here, but I certainly wouldn’t mind having him on my bench.

55. Mike Sims-Walker: After a hot start to the season, he faded pretty badly down the stretch.  In his last 6 games, he finished with just 16 receptions, going for just 175 yards and 1 td.  Yeah, he’s got the potential to be a fantasy starter, but not on Jacksonville, and not with Garrard at QB.  If you draft him, you should highly consider trading him for a profit in the second half of the season.  If Garrard’s lookin’ good though, maybe hold off on the sale.  Sims-Walker caught 7 tds out of the 15 that Garrard threw all season, so you know Garrard’s looking his way.

56. Michael Crabtree: He played pretty well once he got to the team in week 7.  He averaged 4.3 receptions a game and was fairly consistent, never going for less than 3 and no more than 6 receptions.  Entering his second year now and with Alex Smith looking good at QB, a 1000 yard season is likely.  He can put up WR1 yardage, but I’d love to see the TDs go up a bit (2 in 11 games) before I can give him a full endorsement.

57. Marion Barber: Are the days of Marion the Barbarian over and done with?  In 2 seasons as the secondary ball carrier, he had 16 and 12 touchdowns, then went down to 9 and 7 the next 2 years as a starter.  Well, he’s back to backup duty, with Felix Jones named starter, so maybe he’ll show us again that less is more.  Either way, he’s a great late round risk/reward pick here, since while his tds certainly went down, he still ran a 4.4 clip.  Drafting him as a 3 or 4 almost guarantees a profit.

58. Percy Harvin: Well he hasn’t been practicing much so far, dealing with injuries and the like.  However, he made a bigger impact in his rookie year than I figured he would, and it’s the norm to expect young players to keep improving, so a 1000 yard season isn’t so farfetched.  His value spikes up a notch in a league like ours that counts return yards too, as he is the primary kickoff return man.  Just FYI though, he only had 1 100 yard receiving game last year.

59. Thomas Jones: Living proof that the age of 30 isn’t the end all be all for runningbacks, Jones has moved to Kansas City and is currently named the starter there.  In fact, he had his best 2 years after hitting 30.  Even without starting though, he should be getting the goal line carries, so he’ll still provide some value on your bench even as a backup.  Just don’t expect anything close to what he was able to do in NY though.  The Chiefs only had 8 rushing tds total last year compared to 21 for the Jets.  The Jets also have one of the best O-lines in the league, making running there easy.  It’ll be much tougher to run in KC, but at least Jamaal Charles’ success last year shows that it’s not impossible.

60. Jeremy Maclin: While he’s the no. 2 receiver in Philly, he’s the no. 3 option behind wr1 Desean Jackson and TE Brent Celek.  He had some success as a rookie, as many consider him a nice breakout candidate for 2010.  He’s a pretty good deep ball threat, but he’ll need to increase his TDs if he wants to start on any fantasy team.

61. Tony Gonzalez: The OG of TEs, this guy is one of the if not THE first TE to be heavily involved in the passing game of a team.  In his first year with Atlanta, fantasy owners were slightly disappointed, but he certainly wasn’t a bust.  As Matty Ice improves and matures in the passing game, Gonzo should benefit, as Matty looks his way often enough (83 receptions).  I’d expect a season of close to 1000 yards and 7-8 tds.

62. Jason Witten: While he’s an elite TE when it comes to pass catching, he unfortunately doesn’t get enough TDs.  In no games last year did he go under 4 receptions, but he only scored once during the fantasy season (his second td came in week 17).  He’s another risk/reward guy: you know you’ll get the receptions and yards, but the TDs are always a mystery.  Dating back to ’04, he’s had 6, 6, 1, 7, 4, and then 2 tds last year.  I’d rather wait a round or two and take Celek, personally, but definitely wouldn’t mind having him.

63. Justin Forsett: He was expected to take most of the snaps earlier this offseason, but a recent statement from the Seahawks has all but killed that notion.  With Julius Jones and the exciting Leon Washington on board, they’ve declared a RBBC between the 3 backs.  Forsett has the most upside, clearly, as he was dynamite whenever his number was called last year, but it’ll be a few years before he becomes a household name.

64. Reggie Bush: He was finally able to rush the ball a bit, running at a 5.6 clip, but unfortunately, he only ran it 70 times.  His real value to fantasy owners was in PPR leagues, as he averaged 5.6 receptions per game over his first 3 years.  But he not only barely touched the ball in the running game last year, he also only averaged 3.3 receptions.  For a guy who’ll get limited touches, that simply doesn’t cut it.  You’re only drafting him for the hype, and hoping he can at least get those receptions back up.

65. Ahmad Bradshaw: Bradshaw is a very talented runner, yes, but he’ll still be on the short end of the split carries between him and Brandon Jacobs.  Bradshaw averaged 4.8 ypc compared to Jacobs’ 3.7, but Jacobs is still the incumbent starter.  Bradshaw will be a great bye-week filler, but you can’t start him consistently in this situation.  On the bright side, Jacobs was unnaturally bad last year due to some lingering injuries and appears to be fighting some injuries again already, so there’s some opportunity for Bradshaw to steal some more touches.

66. Wes Welker: This is probably the biggest discount of any player you’ll find going into 2010.  Coming off major surgery, he came back several weeks (months?) ahead of schedule and is poised to play in the preseason.  His ranking continues to go up and up, but is currently a mid 7th rounder!  This guy is a PPR MONSTAR, making 110 receptions seem easy.  He also had a league high 123 last year despite playing in only 14 games.  He won’t give you many tds, but the receptions will make up for it.  He’s an elite no. 2 wr, so don’t be afraid to take him higher than what he’s currently ranked.

67. Kevin Kolb: He’s taking over the helm for a team that loves to throw and has plenty of options, so many (including me) expect big things from this guy.  He showed he can sling it with the best of ‘em in 2 starts last year, but one of those starts came against the woeful KC defense.  Too small a sample size to really draft this guy as your starting QB, but that’s the risk/reward again.  He’ll be one of my target if I miss out on all the higher ranked QBs, definitely, but I’d rather not be in that position.

68. Jay Cutler: His numbers don’t look that bad, if you ignore those 26 interceptions that is.  He’s got a big arm for sure, but without better control (or better receivers), those interceptions will make it tough to have him on your team.  With Mike Martz taking over the offense this year for the Bears though, there’s some potential there.  Martz is known for being pass happy, and with the young Bears’ receivers maturing another year, Cutler could go back to his Denver form.  Well, with our dual qb system, someone’s taking the chance.  I just hope it doesn’t end up being me.

69. Matt Forte: Here’s another guy I’m targeting for depth for the potential upside.  After a stellar rookie year, he took 2 steps back last year in a forgettable season.  The Bears brought in Chester Taylor, a good rb who can get it done when you call his number, but never really had the opportunities, always playing the backup role.  Forte got some rave reviews this offseason and has a ringing endorsement from the team so far, but a situation to keep an eye on nonetheless.  I’m just hoping Forte can achieve the average of his first 2 years and be a permanent fixture in my flex spot.

70. Brett Favre: *use ctrl+F to find what I wrote above, as he should be ranked higher*

71. Fred Jackson: He wasn’t in a good situation to begin with, but now he broke his hand and might miss the season opener.  As if him being in a 3-way timeshare with Marshawn Lynch and rookie CJ Spiller wasn’t bad enough, they’re also playing for Buffalo.  When it rains, it pours I guess, eh?  He looked to be in line to receive the most touches of the 3, but this setback may spin a different tale.  If you draft him, make sure you get at least one of the others as a handcuff too.

72. Pierre Garcon: one of two Pierre’s in the league, he made quite an impact for a rookie, although honestly, getting playing time as a receiver for Peyton Manning makes it easy to do so.  But did you know?  Garcon tied for 5th in the league in plays of 25+ yards, tying with big name players Randy Moss, Marques Colston, Steve Smith (Car), and Greg Jennings.  He’ll contend with Anthony Gonzalez for the no. 2 wr spot, but should be a nice depth player on any fantasy team.

You know what? I’m just going to stop here and go with my bargain bin bit.  I checked the rankings and they just updated it again, screwing everything up! Whatever, the bargain bin is probably the most important part of this anyway.
On to the first position!

BARGAIN BIN:  Players ranked sub-75 who are of particular interest

QBS:
Plenty of depth here at qb, and we’re going to need it with our dual qb system in place.

Joe Flacco (84): After a blazing hot start to the season (1849 yards, 12 tds, 5 picks his first 8 games), he disappeared a bit in the second half (1764 yards, 9 tds, 7 picks his last 8 games).  His second half numbers are a bit skewed too, thanks to a 4 td performance against Chicago.  This just means that he has some big potential, but is still raw and needs to mature a bit.  The acquisition of Anquan Boldin will certainly help him mature a bit faster.  He’ll be drafted as a starter in 2011.

Donovan McNabb (97): Usually drafted as a starter, this year his change of scenery from Philly to Washington has scared off a lot of people.  He doesn’t really get enough stats to be a qb1, but he’ll be a mainstay qb2.  He has some decent options at wr in Washington, though not as good as he had in Philly, but if (and it’s a big if for this guy) he stays healthy, you’ll brag about the bargain you got with this guy.

Carson Palmer (103): He was my top choice for a bargain bin qb last year, but the Bengals played it safe and ran the ball as often as they could.  Palmer now has a full season under his belt after major arm surgery, and I believe once again that he’ll be a top flight qb.  They have tons of options in their receiving corps, and I still have Benson and think that he’ll stumble.  Look for Palmer to look to Jordan Shipley quite a bit for the short yardage gains, and TO and Ochocinco for the long balls.

Alex Smith (112): I’m drafting this guy as my starter in some leagues, where I miss out on all my other qb targets.  He didn’t start until week 7 last year, but once he did he never looked back.  After being unable to shed the ‘bust’ label in 3 years with the team, he didn’t even win the starting job last year.  Rather he was handed the job due to then starter Shaun Hill’s ineffectiveness.  Smith became a hot fantasy free agent pickup through his play, with 6 multi-td games and only 1 game with none.  Many are still skeptical about whether he’ll be able to keep up the success, but it’s not even much of a risk if you draft him this low.

Matt Moore (187): Starting for the Panthers, he has a nice connection with Steve Smith, and if he can continue with where he left off last year, he’ll be able to hold off on rookie qb Clausen’s claim to the throne.  Definitely worth drafting as a backup, might be a little scary if he’s your no. 2 though.

Matt Leinart (222): Look, I’m no fan of Leinart’s, that’s for sure.  But in his ‘bust’ rookie year, he played much better statistically than guys with the hype today like Mark Sanchez and Matt Stafford.  He’s now entering his 5th year, after using the past 4 to learn under Warner.  He’s GOT to have improved, right?  He no longer has Boldin on the other side, but he still has one of the premier wrs in Fitzgerald.  Fitz can make a mediocre qb look good, so let’s hope Leinart can be at least mediocre.

WR:

Malcolm Floyd (79): With Vincent Jackson holding out, Floyd becomes the top wr in San Diego.  No other reason than that to draft him.  If/when V-Jax comes back, Floyd is barely keepable.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh (82): 2 disappointing seasons in a row for fantasy, but pretty damn good considering the teams he was playing on.  He’s still their best starter, and you know he’ll get his looks.  T.J. Whosyourmomma was the 12th most targeted receiver last year.  If Hasselbeck ever has another solid year, it’ll be on the back of Housh.

Donald Driver (86): Am I missing something here?  He had more receptions, more tds, and nearly the same yardage as teammate Greg Jennings, but is ranked 5-6 rounds lower.  Yeah, Jennings’ upside is by far higher, but getting Driver here is a steal if he comes close to repeating what he did last year.

Eddie Royal (118): After a sick rookie year, he was just plain bad last year.  There’s still some hope though, as Brandon Marshall was traded to the Dolphins, and there were no significant acquisitions by Denver afterwards.  Royal becomes the top dog for them, and should be able to do more than he did last year.  But his connection with Orton doesn’t seem all that great if you take last year plus their first preseason game into account.  Worth a late round flyer, but don’t expect too much.

Santonio Holmes (126): Suspended for the first 4 games, Santonio is coming off a career year with Pittsburgh.  Missing 30% of the regular season for fantasy purposes is tough, but he’ s worth the wait.  It’s unknown though how he’ll fare with Sanchez at the helm, but should be a decent play nonetheless.

Vincent Jackson (146): Mentioned several times already throughout this post, he’s a wr1, but is holding out for a better contract.  There are only 2 questions to ask when drafting him: How long will the holdout last? and how long can you afford to keep him on your roster doing nothing?

Anthony Gonzalez (211): Don’t forget this guy.  He was slated to have a breakout year last year with Marvin Harrison officially retired, but got hurt and ended up missing the whole year.  He seems to be healthy now, so should contend with Garcon for the wr2 spot behind Reggie Wayne, but even as a wr3, he’s playing with Peyton so he’ll get his share.

RBs:

Carnell Williams (92): Though injuries nearly derailed his career, he was a nice comeback story last year as he quickly reclaimed the starting job for Tampa Bay.  He totaled 7 tds, and should be able to improve his overall numbers as he’s another year removed from injury.  Should be a very nice depth player that most people forget about.

Ladainian Tomlinson (120): Talk about a fall from grace.  Perenially considered within the top 2 picks, he’s now ranked 120?!?  Yeah, I’m a little bit kinda extremely super biased towards him, as I had him in his MVP year (31 touchdowns!!!!), but come on that’s just ridiculous.  He’s not expected to get a heavy workload, but he’ll likely serve as the Jets 3rd down and goal line back.  Call me loyal, call me crazy, but I like to blame his ineffectiveness on San Diego and their O-line.  Behind the Jets line, we could have a mini-revival on our hands.

Arian Foster (48): Here’s one example of how the new update messed up this entire post for me.  Foster was ranked criminally low before, but now has a ranking that better reflects his projected value.  He’ll be starting for the Texans with Slaton working his way out of their favor, but as they’re both quite young this is a situation to be monitored.

Willis McGahee (139): McGahee has always been a solid runner, and enjoyed success in Baltimore until Ray Rice (RU!) came to town.  He ran the ball well last year with his limited touches, and also leeched 12 touchdowns, and is now drawing considerable interest from other teams in the market.  In Baltimore he won’t be more than a bye week filler that you hope gets that goal line plunge, but if he gets a better opportunity elsewhere, it’ll be quite interesting to see how he performs.

TEs:

Brent Celek (72): I’ll include Celek because I did not talk about him in the rankings as he was sub-72 earlier.  Celek had a breakout year last year in his 3rd season, but is in a position to at least repeat.  In 3 games with Kolb last year, Celek had 22 receptions for 245 yards and 2 tds.  Their connection seems high, and Celek is my pick for best value in terms of draft position and given production by year’s end.

Owen Daniels (105): Daniels was on track for a career year last year before getting injured, catching 5 tds in essentially 7 games while never catching more than 5 in any season.  However, he’s not even cleared to practice yet, and the Texans are still hoping he’ll be available for the last preseason game.  Again, Houston is a pass first offense so if you miss out on all the other TEs, give him a look before I snatch him up.

Zach Miller (107): He’s been able to put up solid TE numbers in Oakland, so you know he’s got some skills.  Jason Campbell’s at QB now, and Campbell looks to his TEs pretty often.  It doesn’t really matter if Miller improves on his other stats much, as he’s already performing well, but you really need his TDs to spike up dramatically, but if they do, he’ll be a top tier TE for next year.

Chris Cooley (127): The last TE I’m willing to take, his career has basically been Zach Miller+tds.  He missed most of last year due to injury, and wasn’t performing as well, with the ‘Skins keeping him back to block more often than in previous years.  He’s got a lot of potential, but early reports say they’ll continue to use him to block more, so he’s far from a sure thing.

That’s all for now folks! Trying to write this whole thing in 2-3 days has made me sick of it! The last section probably sucks as a result, but oh well.  Draft in 2 days!  Try to keep up with me

Isn’t it funny how, when you have exams coming up, suddenly every other thing seems like a very important thing to do?  Like cleaning your room?  Doing the Laundry?  Or analyzing your fantasy football league after the season’s ended and you didn’t make the playoffs and you’re wondering why when you have such a talented team and you’re looking for some justification?  Well here’s the chart!  In order from most points scored against, to least.  The 3rd column is the count of how many times a team scored 150 or more points against you, the 4th column is 140 points, and the last column is the difference between the points you scored and the points scored against you (through the 13 week regular season).

Sorry! I made the chart using excel but it wouldn't show up right so I had to paste this screen shot!

Awards

Don’t Hate Me Cause You Ain’t Me:  goes to Yeaegi hands down.  Despite scoring only 31 points more than last place Kevin, she enters the playoffs as the #1 seed and first round bye with a 2 game lead, despite losing 3 of her last 5.  Her team is also exceedingly unintimidating, with busts like forte and calvin johnson, yet somehow kept finding ways to win. Will the lucky streak continue to a championship?

The World is So Cruel: Dan Bae.  Scored the 3rd most points, but had the most points scored against him, leaving him in 9th place.  Also tied for the lead in teams going over both 140 and 150 points this season. Sorry, just not in the cards for you this year despite a very good team.

I Like Big Busts: Easily Kevin Lee.  LT sucked, picking it up of late (after his early efforts already buried you in the bottom of the standings) though.  He also missed 2 games this year, making it 3 total for his career.  Barber sucked too.  4 tds so far this year.  Enough said.  Greg Jennings?  Huge dropoff.  After a 1300 and 9 season, he’s on pace for a 1050 and 4 year.  Yuck.  Derrick Ward’s only decent fantasy game came in week 1.  Owen Daniels played well then got lost for the season.  Torry Holt proved that his ineffectiveness last year with St Louis may truly be because of his age.  Better luck next year.

Is It Drafty In Here or Is It Just Me?: This best draft award is also easy, and goes to Jueyju!  Great picks early, middle, and late.  Her top 5 picks are all amazing, awesome value in picks 9 through 11 with benson, philly d, and devin hester, and a nice late round pick with leon washington; and despite losing both ronnie brown and leon washington, still couldn’t help but be second in points scored (by less than 1 point!).

The Tease: Tim Moon.  After going 5-2 through 7 weeks, lost 4 in a row to keep the rest of the league in playoff contention.  Then after a nice 143 point performance to beat the then 1 loss ninetales team, had a huge 155 point week against me in what would be the battle for the 3rd seed, and the loser out of the playoffs altogether.  I hate you.

The Tortoise in the Tortoise and the Hare… except That the Hare Won: Tom Moon. 7 wins this year for our league meant a playoff berth, and like me, you came up 1 short with 6.  Your team was just plain bad, but then you made a very nice run, winning 5 out of your last 6, but alas, the run came too late, as you were already out of contention going into the last week of the season.

Don’t Hate Me Cause You… No Never Mind, You Should Hate Me: Patrick, no doubt.  Doesn’t even update his team (did he even draft?) yet he’s in the playoffs, scoring the 2nd LEAST amount of points.  Even with me updating his lineups week to week, I didn’t add/drop anyone except a new kicker.  Gimme a break… that’s my playoff spot right thurr!

Danger’s My Middle Name: P. Josiah.  The difference between him and his opposition in terms of points scored for the season is under 1 point.  UNDER ONE POINT!  Think about that for a second… that’s crazy.  He really likes to keep things interesting as you can see from his record: L, W, L, W, W, L, L, W, L, W, L, L, W.  Never more than a streak of 2 wins or losses, and he squeaked into the playoffs with his 37 point lead over me (and now a win in the playoffs by less than the negative points of kurt warner!).

Squeezed In The Middle: Me. Middle of the pack (6th) in points scored, middle of the pack (6th) in points scored against, and it showed week to week.  I scored above 130 ten times out of 13, my low was 117, and my high was 156.  Not too low, not too high.  My first 3 games really hurt me, with 3 of the 6 instances of those scoring 140+ on me happening then, putting me in an 0-3 hole that would prove fatal.  No big scoring weeks also left me lacking in the points area, which would prove to be the reason why I’m on the outside looking in.

AND OUR WHAT’S GOOD?! YOU DON’T EVEN KNOW ME!!(MVP) TROPHY GOES TO………………………………

Jason Choi! Congratulations Jason for winning this prestigious award.  You win a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to drive your own vehicle to and from new york and englewood on sundays only, AND the chance to play drums in a live band every sunday afternoon after your ride in your new whip!
You win this award for a simple reason: you scored the most points over 13 weeks (despite an epic 68 point fail week 2, matched only by your epic first round playoff fail) despite having the 2nd most points scored AGAINST you, and you tied for the leads in 140 and 150 pts scored against you with dan bae, but unlike mr. bae, you managed 6 wins and a playoff berth.  It’s unfortunate that you lost, but at least you were in it!

Hope you all enjoy your awards, and I’ll see you next year!  Here’s hoping that I win some money in my other leagues!
]]> http://allteekay.wordpress.com/2009/12/15/post-2009-regular-season-analysis-and-awards/feed/ 5 tkim228 post 2009 fold ffl PA analysis http://allteekay.wordpress.com/2009/08/29/fold-fantasy-football-league-post-analysis-2009/ http://allteekay.wordpress.com/2009/08/29/fold-fantasy-football-league-post-analysis-2009/#comments Sat, 29 Aug 2009 19:35:57 +0000 Tommy Kim http://allteekay.wordpress.com/?p=39 ]]> So here I am again, doing another post draft analysis.  It took me quite a long time last year, but looking back at my old post, I had fun looking at my hits and misses.  Some changes to it this year, to better gauge my analysis next year, but these changes should be a good thing.  And, rather than randomly talking about random players on each team, I’ll go through each position, and put my own forecast for the starters.  Oh, and I’ll talk about team defenses this year, but I’m going to leave out the Kickers and IDPs, cause they’re pretty tough to predict.  At the end, I’ll put my predicted end-of-regular-season standings as well with a short full team analysis.

Hopefully some of you find this helpful, but even if not, it’s fun for me!  I’ll start going right down the list, and remember, these are LONG as I go through each player’s upsides and downsides, so look at your team’s first, and then look at others when you’re bored or have time.

Prince:

QB: Matt Schaub is good.  I really like him as a player.  Critics will point to the fact that he’s played in only 11 games for the past 2 seasons, but I read somewhere that all of those injuries were direct results of illegal plays that were flagged on the field, so it’s not as if he just gets hurt while playing the game normally.  If you project what he did last year over a full 16 games, he woulda put up some monster numbers.  Not to mention, he’s throwing to a freak WR in Andre Johnson, and Slaton is a good receiver out of the backfield as well.  Of course, the key will be if he can play the full 16, and i’ll take a bold prediction and say that he does.

TK’s forecast:  4000 yards,  25 total tds, 15 int.

Your backup is Kyle Orton.  Last year in chicago with very bad receivers, he put up respectable numbers, so I would expect his numbers to take a big jump now that he’s throwing to Marshall and Royal.  However, he has looked absolutely HORRENDOUS thus far in the preseason.  Definitely worth holding onto for now though, but as Schaub’s bye week comes around, he’ll need a re-evaluation.
*EDIT*
You just dropped Orton for Delhomme.  I think I would’ve held onto Orton at least until week 1, but Delhomme isn’t bad either.  He is more likely to be a good fantasy qb than Orton at least.

RB:

Frank Gore: well to keep a long story short, he’s good, but his team is not.  The team will undoubtedly revolve around him, but it’s been like that for the past 3 or 4 years too.  Talent without a supporting cast tends to get lost, and I expect that to happen to Gore again this year.  Looking at his stats for the past 3 seasons, his carries, rush yards, receptions, and rec. yards, and games played have all gone down after his ‘monster’ season in ’06.  I just can’t trust Gore until San Fran as a whole shows me something.

TK’s Forecast:  1100 yards, 5 tds, 40 rec, 350 rec yards, 2 tds.

Brandon Jacobs: this guy’s a beast, no way around it.  2 years in a row he’s averaged 5 ypc – that’s monstrous.  Unfortunately, the only time he’s played in all 16 games so far in his career was his rookie year where he only carried it 38 times.  And again, I expect him to miss 3-4 games this year.  He’s just too big;  to bring him down, you have to either give him a HUGE hit or tackle him from his legs/ankles.  Obviously a huge hit hurts, and tackles around the legs can lead to sprains and whatnot. Also, he only had 6 receptions last year, so don’t expect anything there.  But the only major concern here is how many games will he miss, and when.

TK’s Forecast:  1050 total yards, 13 total tds.

Thomas Jones: I had jones last year, and he was freakin awesome for me, but I expect him to get nowhere near that this year.  It’s more realistic to expect a year similar to ’07, where he only had a 3.6 ypc average as opposed to his 4.5 last year.  Critics are really down on this guy, but I think he’ll still be worthy enough to play as a no. 2 rb unless he gets traded.  However, with a rookie qb, lack of great receivers, and lots of competition, it’s really hard to say how he’ll do this year.  Luckily he’s your 3rd back, but temper your hopes:  15 total tds again would be a miracle.  Here’s some perspective:  the most rushing tds he’s ever scored in a season outside of last year was 9.  He has 3 total receiving tds in his career, and 2 came last year.  Yeah…. that’s not happening again.

Forecast:  1150 total yards, 9 total tds.

Julius Jones:  I hate him for fantasy.  Period.  Despite a great 4.4 ypc average last year and not much competition for carries, he only had 158 carries for 700 yards and 2 tds.  His tds will always be low, but when he’s only getting you 700 yards, well, that’s just purely a bye week player.  He is bad for fantasy but ok as a reserve for when you’re desperate.

Kevin Faulk:  In our league, this guy will vie with Sproles to be your primary backup.  His point total was actually quite good last year, with 1000 total offensive yards, and adding 58 receptions and 6 total tds.  He’ll most likely still get his chances in NE, but the fact that he’s 33 is a concern.

Darren Sproles: I’m not that big on Sproles, especially compared to the Yahoo experts.  In LT’s worst career year, where everyone expected Sproles to be utilized more in the offense, his numbers SCREAMED backup.  LT has missed only 1 regular season game in his career, so don’t bank on him getting hurt either.  Most of his value will be from his return yards, a whopping 1625 last year.  However, it’s hard to bank on something so inconsistent as that.

Wide Receivers:

Anquan Boldin: Everyone should know how good this guy is.  In only 12 games last year he had 89 receptions for 1038 yards and 11 tds.  Could’ve easily put up Fitzgerald numbers if he played all 16, but therein lies the problem:  he’s played in only 12 games each of the past 2 years.  Not to mention, his value would take a HUGE hit if Warner ever got hurt or lost the starting job and the cards decide to use Leinart.  That said, the injury he sustained last year was from an absolutely vicious hit, the likes of which are rare even in the NFL, so I do expect him to play at least 15 games this year and, if he doesn’t get traded (remember he’s in a contract dispute, though he is every year it seems like), should put up some monster numbers.

Forecast:  1350 yards, 12 tds.

Antonio Bryant: Sorry but be prepared for a letdown here.  I’m going to go ahead and put the ‘bust’ label on this guy.  This guy’s got an attitude problem, but more than that, his entire career has been extremely inconsistent.  Even if I ignore that, his situation is a lot different.  He’s hurt right now, hurt his knee and had to have surgery, though he’s supposedly going to be available for week 1.  His QB situation is bad too.  He lost the qb who threw to him last year, and TB doesn’t know who their starter will be yet.  On top of that, they seem to be committed to being a true running team, talking about using 3 backs extensively.  Obviously what he did last season can’t be ignored and he does have that potential, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

Forecast: 900 yards, 4 tds.

Anthony Gonzalez: Another guy that I don’t like as much as everyone else.  Everyone’s expecting this huge year, mainly because Marvin Harrison is gone, but come on let’s be real here.  Marvin’s been gone since 2006.  Something like 250 yards in 07, and 650 yards in 08.  The one who really benefits from the absence of Harrison is your TE Dallas Clark, but I’ll get to that next.  The one thing that Gonzalez has going for him is the fact that he’s entering his 3rd year now, and that’s the breakout year for many receivers (see Roddy White’s career stats, and you’ll see what I mean).  When you have Peyton throwing to you, people like you.  As for me though, I’d take a wait and see approach, only since he hasn’t really shown anything yet.

Forecast:  950 yards, 6 tds.

Laveranues Coles: I think he’s a great player for where he’s being drafted, and he could put up some good numbers but, there are some concerns here.  First off he’s closing in on 32 years of age.  Second, he’s never had more than 7 tds in a season, despite being a favorite in the redzone.  Third, he’s alwasy battling some sort of injury and you’re never sure if he’ll be a last second scratch or not.   Finally, his production is dependent on Carson Palmer, who is coming off elbow surgery last year.  I for one believe in Carson though, so I think Coles will have a great year, and Chad Ochocinco has never been a redzone target, while Coles has, so you can expect those TDs will go to Coles, but due to his age and the threat of the young speedster Chris Henry, I don’t think he’ll inspire anyone this season.

Chris Chambers: I hate all receivers on San Diego except for maybe Vincent Jackson, and that’s just a maybe.  Chambers is the forgotten man in the Chargers passing game, with the looks first going to Gates, LT, and V-Jax first, in no particular order.  This is evidenced by chamber’s meagre 33 receptions for 462 yards in a season where Rivers threw for over 4000 yards and 34 tds.  You can do better.

Tight End:

Dallas Clark:  Poised for a great year.  As I said earlier, everyone expect Anthony Gonzo to have a great year in the absence of Marvin Harrison, but Clark is the main beneficiary of that.  Harrison was invisible the last 2 years, and coincidentially, they were the 2 best years of Clark’s career.  Sit back, relax, and expect great things.

Forecast:  950 yards, 8 tds.

Chicago Defense:  I like this def, usually one of the best ones.  Sorta went under the radar last year, but keep in mind that they scored more fantasy points than the awesome Giants D last year (actually a lot of teams did).

Ok I gotta keep these analyses shorter.  Onto the next:

BoxofJosiahonFiah

QB:

Tony Romo has been great for fantasy thus far in his career.  He only played 13 games last year but put up upper tier numbers nonetheless.  However, for all the knock on TO, no one can argue that the man is a great receiver, and many ‘elite’ quarterbacks have fallen into oblivion after losing 1 great receiver.  Will Romo follow the same fate?  Preseason indications point to no, but something to keep an eye on nonetheless.

Forecast:  3800 yards, 28 tds, 14 int.

Your backup is Ben Roethlisberger, and I can only describe this guy’s fantasy value with one word: EW.  He has great name value because he’s won a couple of rings, but I think that many other players could’ve won those rings on that team as well.  Let’s go through his career in terms of TD passes:  17, 17, 18, 32, 17.  I liked him a lot after those 32 tds last year, but I’ve learned otherwise.  Looking at the numbers, I think it’s safe to say that year was a fluke.  He’s ok as a bye week filler though, as he doesn’t have many games where he really kills you, but he won’t be the reason you win a week.

Running Backs

Michael Turner is a beast, no lie.  The biggest knock on him is his lack of production in away games last year.  Look at the split stats:  1032 yards and 14 tds in 8 home games.  667 and 3 tds in 8 away games.  That’s a bit scary.  But looking at his game log, of those 8 away games, only 3 ended up being bad for fantasy teams.  Another concern is the fact that he exceeded 370 carries last year, which historically has been the cursed number.  Many backs simply broke down or started to break down following a season where they carried the rock over 370 times.  Fortunately for Turner though, he is young and including those 376 carries, now has only 604 total career carries, so if the curse of 370 has an exception, he will be it.  The addition of Tony Gonzalez is sure to bite into his TD totals, as Gonzo is a huge redzone threat.  Better hope the Falcons aren’t behind in too many games though, cause Turner doesn’t have the word ‘reception’ in his dictionary.

Forecast:  1500 yards, 13 tds.

Clinton Portis: Potentially the steal of the draft, seeing how far he fell.  Can’t complain much about him, but to be honest I was avoiding him.  Why?  Because of his dropoff in the second half last year.  After a great start, he faded hard and fast in his last 8 games.  After going over 100 yards rushing 5 times and scoring 7 tds in the first 8, he exceeded 100 yards rushing only once and scored only twice in his last 8, and one of those scores wasn’t relevant for fantasy as it came in week 17.  He has a LOT of wear and tear on his body, as he’s toted the ball roughly 8 million times so far in his career, and the second half regression could be a result of his body wearing down.  I like guys that get me into the playoffs, but I like guys that’ll help me win once I’m there more.

Forecast:  1300 total yards, 8 total tds, and I say he misses 3 games.

Willie Parker: I would like Willie a lot more if Mendenhall wasn’t around cause with the size differences b/t Parker and Mendenhall, you can be sure the goal lines will go to the latter.  I had Parker in 07 where he had 1300 yards and 2 tds, and trust me, it stinks.  Parker’s greatest weapon is his speed, but he’s approaching 29 years old, and is already nursing his hamstring.  A quick look at his career stats will show that his ypc average has dipped EVERY SINGLE YEAR of his career, down to a meagre 3.8 last year.  Cross your fingers.

Forecast:  950 yards, 4 tds.

Willis McGahee:  I feel bad for him.  He’s still a talented back, but he has to deal with Ray Rice now.  Rice is the starter for now, but be sure they’ll use a running-back-by-committee (RBBC).  McGahee should still put up respectable numbers, but I doubt we’ll be wowed, barring an injury to Rice.  Rice and McGahee are very similar backs, but Rice has the higher upside at this point, so it’ll be very hard for McGahee to wrest the job away.  Hope for a nice split carry ratio here.

Ricky Williams: Well he didn’t get caught smoking weed last year, that’s a plus.  He proved last year that he’s still got what it takes, averaging over 4 ypc.  However, Ronnie Brown is the incumbent starter.  There’s not a lot of future upside with Ricky, so the tendency should be to give more and more responsibility to Brown.  At this point,  I would have to say that a repeat of last season would be a success.

Wide Receiver:

Steve Smith:  is awesome.  One of the most dynamic receivers in the game despite his short stature.  The only problem here is his TD total of 6 last year.  It’s not terrible, but you want more from your no. 1 receiver.  Delhomme is there to stay, after signing a new contract, unfortunately, but the plus side is that Delhomme and Smith have great rapport together, after playing together for so many years, and Delhomme throws to this guy early and often.  It’s hard to realistically expect a lot of TDs for him though, being only 5’9″, but he put up 1400 and 6 last year after missing 2 games with a suspension.  Money.

Forecast:  1300 yards, 8 tds.

Brandon Marshall: Talented yes, but a whiny attitude is never a good thing.  He’s repeatedly spoken of his desire to be traded, and is obviously not happy in Denver.  In this case, a trade to a team with a better quarterback could happen, boosting his value.  But if we look more at his stats and ignore all the other stuff, his lack of tds is a concern.  7 two years ago and 6 last year, with Jay Cutler throwing to him.  Now with Orton throwing, it’s hard to expect an increase.  The receptions and yardage will be there though, to help offset that.  While he’ll probably help out your team tremendously, he’ll probably be giving you a lot of headaches as well.
*EDIT*
Uh Oh looks like it’s started.  Marshall suspended indefinitely by the team for detrimental conduct.  Hopefully this won’t spill over into the regular season.

Forecast: 1400 yards, 5 tds.

Braylon Edwards: Which one will you get?  The one who had 1300 yards, 16 tds, and 20 dropped passes?  Or the one who had 870 yards, 3 tds, and 16 dropped passes?  Either way, the guy needs to get a new pair of gloves (or hands, ideally).  He must have fought a gorgon and partially looked into her eyes because his hands are made of stone.  Leading the league in dropped passes 2 years running is never a good thing.  He has a lot of upside though, and will he really drop that many 3 years in a row?  I would hope he and his coaches worked on this (over and over and over) during the offseason.  Could end the season as the steal of the draft if he gets anywhere close to his 07 totals.

Forecast:  1000 yards, 8 tds.

Muhsin Muhammad:  Despite his age (36), I expect him to have another solid season this year, as he is really the only viable option to start alongside Steve Smith in Carolina.  There’s not a lot of competition there either, so no one’s really poised to break out and take his spot.  That being said, 900 yards and 5 tds again would be an awesome value for him, but probably won’t happen as Carolina looks to be a run first team.

Mark Bradley: Showed flashes last year, but has competition for the no. 2 spot in KC.  Solid vets Bobby Engram and Amani Toomer are there, perhaps showing the KC staff’s lack of faith in Bradley.  Solid late round pick, but could end up on the waiver wire after week 1.  Wait and see here, but don’t hesitate to drop him after a bad performance or two.

Tight Ends:

Kellen Winslow: I like him this year.  After an injury plagued career, he finished up in Cleveland with 2 back to back seasons playing the full 16 games.  Seeing him miss 6 games last year is a concern, but for where he’s drafted, a risk worth taking.  Winslow has always been considered a top talent TE when healthy, and you know with the lack of starpower at QB this year in tampa, they’ll rely on him a lot for short to mid-ranged passes.

Forecast:  900 yards, 6 tds.

Dustin Keller: People expect great things from Keller this year, and I’ve seen him drafted as a starter many times, so having him to back up Winslow in case Winslow busts is great.  Young QBs tend to rely on their TEs a lot, so we could see a dramatic increase in receptions this year with Sanchez starting.  Also, the only real viable option at WR for the Jets is Jerricho Cotchery.  Expect a San Diego style passing game, where they will throw to a rb, the TE, and 1 particular receiver.

I’ll make an exception and predict Keller’s stats, cause I wanna see how I did next year.
Forecast: 700 yards, 6 tds.

Minnesota Defense: Great name value here, as they’re known to be a strong defense.  But the Williams brothers, experts at stopping the run, are suspended for the first 2 or 4 games I believe, which could hurt the team quite a bit.  Minny’s also never really been known to be great against the pass, but they have some dynamic playmakers on this defense and will get you a decent amount of TDs.

YoMama’s All-Stars

Quarterbacks:

You have Peyton Manning, and you really can’t go wrong here.  There are quite a few who don’t like him, but that’s largely due to his slow start to the season last year.  But his slow start can be attributed to his recovery from I think it was knee surgery, and this year he’s healthy to start and he’s a lock for at least 4000 yards and 27 tds.  Slight concern that they have a new offensive coordinator, but Peyton’s Peyton so it shouldn’t affect him too much.  Start him and forget him.

Forecast:  4100 yards, 30 Tds, 13 int

David Garrard: I think he’s poised for a big year.  Put up mediocre passing numbers last year, but with 322 rush yards and 2 rush tds, it helps offset his passing numbers.  That said, his passing numbers should take a dramatic increase with the Jags addition of a quality wideout in Torry Holt.  Holt’s old, yes, but should still be able to bring it every week.  Last year Garrard had no one to throw to really, and now he’ll have a go to guy.  I’m looking for his td totals to exceed 20 this year.

Running Backs:

All Day Peterson:  Why is he All Day Peterson?  Because he rips through defenses all day, every week.  He says he’s aiming to get to 2000 rush yards this season, and when he says it, it’s very believable.  After 2 years in the league, his ypc average is a ridiculous 5.2.  He is one of the best pure runners in the game, no doubt, but his lack of receiving stats and total TDs are his largest fallbacks.  But even there, he still had 10 which isn’t bad at all, it just doesn’t blow you away.  With Favre at the helm this year, the passing game should be better, keeping defenses honest and not all on Peterson.  I don’t think he’ll break 2000 this year, but he’ll come close.

Forecast: 1890 rush yards, 12 total tds.

Ronnie Brown: I wanted him this year, as I think he’ll do much better than he did last year.  While he had 10 tds last year, 4 of those came in one game, leaving the rest of his games a bit dry.  However, he wasn’t that far removed from ACL surgery, and being one more year away from that should help him go back to what he used to be.  He is sharing with with Ricky Williams, but should get the majority, and we’ve seen many RBBCs have success, so it’s not that scary.  If he can stay healthy and get upwards of 250 carries this year, I’m expecting great things.

Forecast: 1400 total yards, 12 tds

Darren McFadden: Rather than mcfadden, you should probably start leon washington here.  Mcfadden’s got the talent and the hype, but he’s definitely going to share carries at least for the start of the season.  They have 2 other viable running backs, and while he should get the most carries, you never know.  Sharing with one other guy is okay these days, but sharing with 2 others could really hurt him.  He is a pretty good receiver out of the backfield though so that helps his value.  You can’t ever really drop this guy, so you’ll have to take a wait and see approach.  I’d definitely play Leon Washington here and see what Mcfadden’s role looks like. But, after a couple of good games, Mcfadden should be able to take the lion’s share of the carries and put up some respectable numbers.

Forecast:  1100 total yards, 7 tds

Leon Washington: He is a great flex/bye player for our league because of his receptions and return yards.  There are reports of the Jets wanting to use him more in the offense, which would only bolster his value.  Should be able to at least duplicate his numbers from last year, but I’m expecting more.

Forecast: 1000 total yards, 8 tds, 1200 return yards

Cedric Benson: Well.. the one thing you got going with him is that he’s the starter and supposed to get 90% of the carries.  However, he suffers from a chronic illness called Suckage and it’s hard to say what he’ll be able to do.  Not to mention he only had 2 tds last year.  Because of the sheer number of touches he’s supposed to get, he makes for a good-enough bye week player, but even then, you’re going to be scared to play him.  I personally like his backup, Bernard Scott, so keep your eye on the situation.

Chester Taylor: He’s a good back and could probably start on another team, but playing with Peterson, he doesn’t get much.  I just dropped him in another league, cause he has no value really unless/until Peterson gets hurt, but since you have Peterson, you should hold onto Taylor for as long as possible as insurance.

Wide Receivers:

Wes Welker: the man is PPR gold.  112 and 111 receptions the past 2 years, and you can bet he’ll get around there again this year.  The biggest difference b/t playing with Brady and Cassel were Welker’s td totals, dropping from 8 to 3.  He’ll probably get somewhere inbetween this year, but what makes him a top receiver, at least in our league, are his receptions.  Due to that, he is one of the most consistent fantasy players there are, so if you get your tds elsewhere, you’re good.

Forecast:  108 Receptions, 1200 yards, 6 tds

Santana Moss: Finally! Another good year!  While his year wasn’t anything particularly special, catching 6 tds when your qb only throws 13 on the year is amazing.  You have to expect the qb Campbell to improve upon last season, so Moss’s numbers should improve as well.  However, looking at his career stats, he’s never had 2 good years in a row.  So keep your eye on that.

Forecast: 1100 yards, 7 tds

Jerricho Cotchery: I expected a big year outta him last year with Favre, but no dice.  It’s hard to say what to expect with a rookie qb now in Sanchez, but the Jets didn’t add any quality receivers, so it’s safe to say he’ll be relying on Cotch quite a bit.  A big difference is that now that Coles is gone, Cotchery should be the first receiver to get the goal line looks which could increase his td total.  At this point, with very limited looks at Sanchez, I can’t expect a lot of yards from Cotchery, but I do expect a lot of receptions and at least a match of his 5 tds from last year.

Forecast:  90 receptions, 1000 yards, 7 tds

Devin Hester:  Everyone’s sleeper pick this year, people expect big things now that Cutler’s in town.  In fact, in the Bears first preseason game, Cutler was throwing almost exclusively to Hester.  I don’t think Hester will be their best receiver, but he’s electric with the ball in his hands, and with an expanded role in the offense he could put up decent wr numbers.  He’ll give you a boost with some return yards as well, so if he can get some tds out of those punt returns, that’d be a very nice boost.

Michael Jenkins: I hate him this year.  Hard to ignore what he did last year but with the Falcons adding Tony Gonzalez at TE, Jenkins will be the forgotten man.  Even last year with only Roddy White to contend with for receptions, he had 50 for 777 and 3 tds.  I’m expecting a sub-500 yard season this year.

Tight End: Antonio Gates: His career stats should say it all.  You got one of the top TEs of all time here, and while last year’s numbers were down, he was battling with nagging injuries all season long.  Should be healthy this year, so you can expect his usual greatness.

Forecast: 1050 yards, 9 tds

Philadelphia Defense: one of the best defenses last year, both in real life and in fantasy, it’s hard to say if they’ll be able to repeat.  They lost their defensive coordinator, and they also lost brian dawkins.  I think they’ll still be a quality defense, but I say they drop significantly from last year.

Team GG:

QBs:

Donovan McNabb: He had a pretty good year last year.  But he played all 16 games for once.  Out of 10 nfl season, he’s played in all 16 games only 4 times including last year.  He gets hurt a lot, and no matter what he says or what the eagles organization says, he has to feel some sort of pressure from the presence of Vick, even if it’s only a little bit.  Also, the eagles just really don’t have a lot of weapons outside of Westbrook.  They basically have 3-4 receivers that could be good no. 2′s on an nfl team, but no true no. 1.  That being said, you might want to pick up Vick cause I don’t have faith in mcnabb’s ability to play all 16 games.

Forecast: 12 games played, 3000 yards, 17 tds, 10 picks

Eli Manning: I officially hate Eli.  I put a lot of faith in him last year, and he sorely disappointed me.  While he didn’t have a bad year, I was expecting the swagger of winning a superbowl by beating the unbeaten Pats to really vault him into the top tier.  Unfortunately he stayed where he was, though he halved his interception totals.  But now without Plaxico, I expect him to be a huge bust.  Historically, Eli has never done well without Plaxico, and now that he’s without him for a full season his numbers could really take a beating.  Ramses Barden could help him though if he is able to step up, as he is 6’6″.

Running Backs:

Chris Johnson: a stupidly fast running back, he’s proven he can be the feature back.  Lendale White is still around and in better shape, but still big enough to be the goal line back though.  Johnson had 9 tds last year, but most of them came from 15-20+ yards out.  Expect a drop there.  He also ran at 4.9 ypc, which will be hard to repeat.  There’s always the possibility of a sophomore slump as well, and I can think of 2 rbs who had nice rookie years and then fell into oblivion just off the top of my head.  That said, I don’t think he’ll be one of those, but I do expect a small dropoff in his overall numbers.

Forecast: 1300 total yards, 7 total tds

Ryan Grant: He didnt do that well last year, running a 3.9 ypc, but still recorded 1200 yards.  He only recorded 4 rushing tds though, and that’s a bit of a concern.  However, Rodgers got 4 himself, and you can’t expect him to do that again.  I expect roughly the same numbers for Grant this year, but with more tds.  He’s a good runner and has the job to himself, and that’s very valuable.

Forecast: 1200 yards, 8 tds

Marshawn Lynch: Lynch is a very nice rb, but he’s suspended for the first 3 games.  I feel your pain, as I have him in another league.  On the bright side, he’ll be fresher throughout the season and should do well down the stretch with more energy.  He averaged over 4 yards per carry the past 2 years on crappy Buffalo teams, but with their addition of TO their passing game could finally get something going, opening more holes on the ground.  He also caught a quiet 47 passes last year, though his rookie year he only caught 18, so it’s hard to say if he’s a viable option for receptions or not.  Lynch will disappoint you some weeks, he had a bunch of clunkers last year, but overall should be in your everyday lineup once he’s back.

Forecast: 1100 yards total yards, 9 total tds

Jamal Lewis: What else can I say but don’t expect much here?  He’s been on the downside of his career for a few years now, and he just hit the magic age of 30.  With some talented young guys waiting in the wings on a terrible Browns team that is very close to rebuilding mode, unless he comes out on all cylinders he won’t be putting up another 1000 yard season.  I expect his carries to drop, and he may fall to cedric benson status, though probably slightly better.

Forecast: 850 yards, 5 tds

Correll Buckhalter: Ah, here’s an interesting player.  When given the opportunity, he’s been very, very good, as evidenced by his career 4.5 ypc.  Whenever Westbrook was hurt in philly, Buckhalter stepped in admirably, and now he appears to have a lock on the starting job in Denver, though that may not mean much with New England’s offensive coordinator from last year being the head coach now.  In past years in NE, he has used a minimum of 3 rbs extensively, and I’m willing to bet that he’ll do it again in Denver with buckhalter, lamont jordan, and rookie moreno.  Definitely a nice sleeper pick though.

Wide Receivers:

Larry Fitzgerald: Everyone knows just how good this guy is, so no point in talking about his upsides.  The concerns here are Kurt Warner playing the whole season, and his appearance on the Madden cover this year.  There’s nothing indicating that Warner won’t play the whole season, but his age is a concern as you become more brittle with age.  One big hit could be it.  The madden curse could become a factor as well.  I’m not much for superstition, but those on the cover tend to suck or get injured so, buyer beware.  But yeah, seriously, this guy is amazing so you only have to worry about superstition at this point.

forecast: 1300 yards, 14 tds

Dwayne Bowe: I’ve had him the past 2 years, and he’s quite talented, but his situation’s changed a bit this year.  Everyone will point to the upgrade at qb with cassel this year, but seriously, thigpen wasn’t bad last year.  He put up some decent numbers.  But, can bowe really have another successful year with Tony Gonzalez gone?  There are no other viable options (at least fantasy wise) on that team in terms of receiving, so bowe will be the focus of opposing defenses.  Can he get it done?  With what he’s done so far in his career, you have to believe he can, but many have flopped once put into his position before, so it’s a concern.  Guess who was second in the league in dropped passes last year?  Yup, Dwayne Bowe.  Regardless, he’ll get the ball thrown to him early and often, so even with his fair share of drops he should put up respectable numbers going into that magical 3rd year as a receiver, but I’m not expecting much of an improvement.

Forecast:  1100 yards, 8 tds

Lee Evans: Hmm… I don’t know.  He’s always been a home run threat and not much else.  Even last year, posting a 1000 yard season, he only had 63 receptions.  The addition of TO should help him though, as I don’t think he’s good enough to consistently beat opposing defenses top corners and safeties.  This time, he’ll be facing their weaker defenders, and his numbers should go up.  At this point though it’s now or never for Evans.  If he can’t put up a great year now, he’ll forever be considered a backup. I’m going for a year similar to ’06.

Forecast:  75 receptions, 1200 yards, 7 tds

Lance Moore: Proved he could be the team’s no. 2 wideout last year, but this year could be a lot different.  Remember, Colston was hurt last year, and even when he came back he was never really 100%.  Being the no. 2 on a team that absolutely loves to throw is great, but I dropped him a bit on my own draft board simply because there are so many targets on that team.  Brees is supposedly working well with Shockey, and you also have Colston, Reggie Bush, and Pierre Thomas is making strides as a receiver out of the backfield.  While I don’t expect it, I wouldn’t be surprised if Moore was the forgotten man.  If you look at his gamelog, the last 4 weeks of fantasy football, Moore was utterly useless, his highest yardage in those games being 36 yards, scoring 0 tds in that span.  He should be a solid depth player, but won’t be startable this year like he was last year.

I’ll forecast him too cause he’s in an interesting situation:  forecast: 750 yards, 5 tds.

Deion Branch: He’s been a ‘potential’ player for years.  I officially hate him.  For his career, he’s averaged only 12 games per season, playing a full slate only once, and he’s never reached 1000 yards receiving or surpassing even a meager 5 tds, even in his prime playing with Tom Brady.  Not to mention he’s already hurt.  This is probably his last year to prove he’s worth anything, but I suspect he’ll be going undrafted next year.

Tight End:

Zach Miller: Good bargain on TE.  He put up some good numbers (though lacking in TDs) last year, and they should continue to utilize him heavily as their receivers suffer from the same suckage disease as benson.  TDs should come, but if he can up his reception totals to 70+, he could be top tier at his position by the end of the year.

Dallas Defense: did sick nasty with the sacks last year with 59, but only 8 picks to go along with that really killed their value.  They cut Roy Williams too, for some reason.  Probably cause he got hurt too much.  But yeah, not sure what to expect from this unit this year.  If they can keep their sacks upwards of 45 and get at minimum 12 picks this year, they should be a quality defense.

NoMoreBustLikeMarony

Quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers: He proved he can be great last year.  Can he do it again? He certainly has the supporting cast around him, but I’ve been burned using qbs in their second year starting.  Example, Rivers’ first season starting, he was quite good.  Not as good as Rodgers last year, but very good nonetheless.  This was because of the influence of LT’s mvp year, of course, but also because of LT’s name.  Defenses keyed in on LT, and decided to take their chances with a young and relatively inexperienced Rivers to throw.  He proved he could, and so the next year defenses paid more attention and he regressed.  2 years ago, when Ryan Grant got the starting gig at RB for the Pack, he ran all over opposing defenses.  Seriously, he was sick nasty.  Check the gamelog.  I think teams keyed in on Grant and the running game last year, letting Rodgers have more freedom to pass.  This year, they should pay more attention to the pass, and I think a small regression is in order.  And I seriously doubt that he gets 4 rushing tds again.  Goal line dives from your qb is not something you like to see.  That’s how they get hurt.  Should have a solid year with all the weapons in the offense, but won’t be as good as last year.

Forecast: 3600 yards, 25 tds, 15 picks.  1 rushing td.

Running Backs:

Ladainian Tomlinson: Easily a hall of famer, LT recently turned 30, but I don’t think he’ll be one to fall back b/c of his age.  Hey, if Thomas Jones could do it on the Jets, why can’t one of the best all time do it with the Chargers?  Everyone looks at last year as a disappointment (over 1500 total yards and 12 tds?!?!), but he was battling turf toe and couldn’t cut that well.  He’s supposed to be healthy now, and he has a chip on his shoulder with everyone calling him over the hill.  I think he’ll have a big enough year to be back in the top 5 picks in drafts next year.  The only concern here is that his ypc average in the preseason stinks.

forecast: 1700 total yards, 17 total tds

Marion Barber: the Barbarian is just that, and it also leads to him getting hurt.  He only missed one game, but played hurt in a bunch of others, and he was a big disappointment last year.  Hard to tell what to expect this year, since they’ll be splitting carries in dallas.  He’s been good splitting with Julius Jones in past years though, so I do expect a rebound year in terms of total TDs, but nothing too crazy.

Forecast: 1100 total yards, 12 total tds

Derrick Ward: Don’t like him at all this year.  Pretty successful year last year splitting carries with Jacobs in NY, but come on.  He ran a ridonculous 5.6 ypc last year.  He is a good runner, yes, I’ve seen enough of his games to know that.  But the Giants O-Line is one of the best in the league, and with the bruiser Jacobs wearing defenses down, Ward’s effectiveness was doubled.  Now in Tampa, they are talking about using 3 backs extensively, and with the o-line not as good as the giants, I don’t see a spike in carries coming, and his ypc will go down, and he still won’t get goal line tds.  It all reeks of  a down year.

Forecast: 750 rushing yards, 250 receiving yards, 3 tds.

Jerious Norwood: Not gonna say much here.  He’s basically the exact equivalent of Leon Washington.  He’s in the same situation so whatever I said for Leon, applies here.

Fred Taylor: Old, and playing in NE.  Way too much competition there with Maroney (your favorite), Faulk, and Morris.  Green-Ellis played admirably in limited time last year too.  Not much to expect here.

Wide Receivers:

Greg Jennings: Proved he should be considered in the upper tier of receivers, but can he repeat?  He increased his receptions from 53 to 80 in one year.  That’s huge and COULD be a fluke.  Having the Rodgers/Jennings tandem is nice though.  I don’t think he’ll improve his numbers, but should still have a very nice year.

Forecast: 1200 yards, 8 tds

Vincent Jackson: Hmm.. he came outta nowhere and became fantasy relevant last year.  On the other hand, he only had 59 receptions.  Historically, SD receivers have stunk big time, but I think Vinny Jax will be able to maintain his status.  I’m not expecting an increase at all.  I think he’ll put up identical numbers with more receptions.

Forecast: 70 receptions, 1050 yards, 7 tds

Desean Jackson: I’d like him a lot more if he was on a different team.  Had a very nice rookie year, but the eagles and mcnabb are known to spread the ball around.  Not to mention he only had 2 receiving tds last year.  Well, typically rookie receivers struggle, so if this is him struggling, there’s a lot of upside.  I don’t see a monster year in the near future, but should be a top flex play.

Forecast: 1000 yards, 3 tds (not counting rushing/returning).

Next i’ll go with Torry Holt: cause I think he should be a starter.  If you look at his career, this guy should be named Mr. consistent.  Only once did he not play the full 16 games, and only twice including last year did he not surpass 1000 yards receiving.  Everyone blames his age, but come on, with St Louis that horrendously bad last year, what do you expect?  He’s on a better team this year, and should go back to his old numbers.

Forecast: 1100 yards, 7 tds

Ted Ginn, Jr: I think he’ll way outproduce his ADP this year, though that’s not hard considering how far down he was.  I wouldn’t really like him on other teams, but he’s the top receiver there, and no one else is really going to push him for that spot.  He’s also hitting his 3rd year as a receiver so I’d expect a 1000+ yard season.

Michael Crabtree: Garbage.  Receivers tend to struggle in their first year, and even when they’re ‘good’, they’re rarely great.  There were already questions about how good Crabtree could be in the NFL, but now he’s not even on a team cause he wants something like 85 trillion dollars.  He’s a bum.  I hate players like that.  If he plays from week 1 I’d say 750 yards tops.

Tight Ends:

Owen Daniels: is very underrated.  Lots of receptions and yards, but needs to work on the td totals.  Otherwise, great play, should repeat.

Forecast: 800 yards, 4 tds.

John Carlson: Hate him this year.  Even with absolutely no one to throw to on the team last year in terms of WRs, he didn’t do that well.  People say he’ll improve cause he was a rookie last year, but come on, now they have TJ Housh, Burleson’s back, and Branch will be there kinda, maybe?  Carlson’s opportunities will be gone.  BUST!

Baltimore Defense: Perenially a top performing unit, they’re getting old and have a new defensive coordinator now.  I think they’ll still be upper tier, but will fall out of the top 5.

Moonunit

Quarterbacks:

Drew Brees: When you have the highest scoring player from last year, it’s a good thing.  The only real concern here is that he tends to throw a lot of picks, and you know all the good things already.  Pretty much a lock to be a top 3 qb again, but don’t expect another 5000 yards.  That was the first time he’s ever passed even 4500 yards.

forecast: 4500 yards, 31 tds, 16 picks

Matt Hasselbeck: I’m one of the believers of Hasselbeck.  If you look at his career stats since ’03, his games played are: 16, 14, 16, 12, 16, 7.. meaning, every other year he plays 16 games, and so this is a 16 game season according to that pattern.. haha.  But seriously, he’s been a good qb when he has weapons to throw to, and remember last year he lost Engram, Branch, and Burleson all within the first week of the season.  With the running game still looking weak, and after they replaced Engram with TJ Housh, you have to expect them to be a throwing team again, and the talent around him bodes well for hasselbeck.  Sniff, Sniff.. huh? What’s that smell?  I think it smells like… comeback?

I’ll forecast him too: 3600 yards, 26 tds, 14 picks

Running Backs:

Steven Jackson: I like him for the same reason I liked him last year: his freakin sick nasty disgustingly awesome ’06 season.  He’s also never posted a ypc average less than 4.1 in any single season.  However, he’s missed 4 games in each of the last 2 seasons, and unfortunately, is still on St. Louis.  Same as Gore, it’s never been a question of talent, it’s a question of supporting cast.  St Louis not only didn’t get better, they got worse:  they let go of Torry Holt, the heir apparent (Avery) is already hurt.  Despite them sucking, Sjax hasn’t come anywhere close to his 90 receptions in ’06, so it doesn’t mean he’ll be catching a lot either.  I sense another mediocre (for his draft position) season.

Forecast: 1450 total yards, 9 tds

Kevin Smith: If I was forced to put a bust label on any of the sophomore rbs who did well last year, it would be Smith.  Look at Carnell Williams and Kevin Jones.  Great rookie years, and are now fighting for playing time.  The fortunate thing for Smith is that he has no real competition for carries.  That said, I believe he’ll do well, he just seems like the most likely candidate for bust to me.  Just a hunch.  Also, he is a decent receiver out of the backfield, and with only Calvin Johnson to throw to, he should be able to net a good amount of receptions.  I’ll have to predict an upswing though in the end.

forecast: 1300 total yards, 10 tds

Jonathan Stewart: Played well last year with limited carries, but you have to be concerned for this year.  He’s already hurt (his achilles, no less) and will miss the entire preseason.  He may miss time during the regular season, and even if he doesn’t, this is the type of injury that lingers, and if he proves to be ineffective, he may get even less carries with the dynamic deangelo there.  He’s more likely to bust than Kevin Smith, but since Stewart wasn’t considered one of the great rookies I didn’t include him in my choices.  After that kinda year from deangelo though, I’d expect the same yardage and less tds from stewart even when healthy.

forecast: 750 yards, 6 tds

Knowshon Moreno: I did not like him as much as eveyrone else.  Everyone thought he’d be the undisputed starter, but they didn’t bring buckhalter and lamont jordan in for nothing.  And remember, the OC from NE is the coach now in Denver, and jordan was in NE.  He must’ve liked what he saw from Jordan if he brought him with him.  And ctrl+F Buckhalter to see what I said about him.  Moreno’s injured too, and hasn’t practiced in a while and is not the starter at the moment.  Wait and see here, but also keep in mind that rookie rbs generally do not enjoy the success that many of them had last year, no matter how heralded they are.    I’m expecting around 700 yards and 4 tds here.

Wide Receivers:

Terrell Owens: a hall of famer at the end of year 35, he is living proof that age 30 is not the end all be all.  But, it’s very clear that he’s nowhere near as good as he used to be.  4th in the league last year with 10 dropped passes, his once sure hands are getting old.  He tends to do well with new teams, but trent edwards is not tony romo.  However, edwards will surely rely on TO, and I do expect numbers similar to last year with more receptions.

forecast: 80 receptions, 1050 yards, 10 tds

Roy Williams: talented guy, but totally invisible last year in Dallas.  Now though with TO gone, he’s the go-to guy and romo will probably rely on him a lot.  I expect a very big year from him this year, not much else to say.  Careful of his recent injury to his shoulder.  Hopefully it doesn’t linger too long.

forecast: 85 receptions, 1300 yards, 8 tds

Kevin Walter: looks like he’ll be a fine play again this year, but one area of concern is track history.  Past 2 years were his only 800+ yard seasons, and with his 8 tds last year, his career total is now at a whopping 13.  What’s odd is, with Andre Johnson missing 7 games 2 years ago, Walter’s numbers were worse than when Johnson played all 16 last year.  So it would seem that he can only do well when defensive focuses are divided.  Eh, not sure how much I like a guy who can’t get it done on his own, but his numbers last year were nice and can’t be ignored.  A repeat would be a huge success.

forecast: 800 yards, 5 tds

Derrick Mason: Old Reliable is back, unretiring to play this season again.  Yo, the dude’s 35 and still goin’ strong.  Should be in line for yet another 1000 yard season with plenty of receptions.  5 tds would be a success for him though.

Domenik Hixon: Popular breakout candidate for the Giants with Burress gone.  This guy has shown us last year what he can do, and I was targeting him in my draft but had too many giants already.  He’s not that tall though, so not likely to be the favorite target of Eli.  Eli will be forced to spread the ball around though, and I do like Hixon’s potential.

Chris Henry: A preseason all-star, he’s had a bunch of great games so far.  How much can he do when Coles and Ochocinco are on the field with him though?  Hard to say.  Generally, he’s been an all-or-nothing guy, 1 reception for 70 yards and a td.. or zilch.  Gotta be encouraged with his recent performance though.  Did have limited success with both ochocinco and housh on the same team, so it’s not too farfetched.

Tight Ends:

Greg Olsen: Hitting his 3rd year in the league, should monopolize the playing time at the position over desmond clark.  If he does, he’s in line for a big year with Cutler.  Cutler doesn’t have a lot of options to throw to, and has been known to throw to TEs a lot.

Visanthe Shiancoe: Came out of absolutely nowhere to have a solid season.  Not much competition for PT on his team, so should be safe for another solid year.  The 7 tds were nice, but you’d like to see more receiving and receptions.

Pittsburgh D: top defense, can’t go wrong.  Nothing indicates a downslide is on the way, so enjoy the points.

My Team (Name changes frequently)

QB:

Philip Rivers: Nice breakout year last year with LT on a very down year for his standards.  I expect LT to be back to normal, making Rivers’ job easier.  Oh, not to mention, Gates was playing hurt last year too, one of his top targets.  With those 2 guys healthy again, it’s entirely possible that PR can improve his numbers, but not likely.  Still, another top tier season is on the horizon.

forecast: 3800 yards, 31 tds, 16 int

Carson Palmer: I really like him this year.  Once considered part of a ‘big 4′ at the position, he had elbow surgery last year and is a risky play.  Thus far, his arm has looked perfectly fine, though currently he’s battling through an ankle injury.  He should be fine for the season opener though, so I”m not too worried.  Usually I’ve been drafting this guy as a high risk/high reward starter, so to have him as my backup is shweeettt.  He’s certainly a prolific passer, but his last full season he threw wayyyy too many picks.  Cut that down, and he’s top tier again.

Hopeful forecast: better than rivers.

Running Backs:

Deangelo Williams: The angel o’ my team, I’ve liked this guy since he got into the league.  His biggest knock has been whether or not he can run b/t the tackles and run guys over, and if you’ve seen his game highlights from last year, you know he can.  Threat to score every time he touches the ball, this guy was just plain scary last year.  His backup/partner Jon Stewart is hurt, and may miss some time, so all the better for deangelo.  Hopefully Stewart’s injury lingers and limits his capabilities so Deangelo can do what he does!  Check the video link in my smack talk in our league for a nice demonstration.

Forecast: 1400 total yards, 13 tds

Pierre Thomas: He’s not a sexy pick, but he gets it done.  Quietly averaged a very very nice 4.8 ypc average over the past 2 seasons, so this guy can run.  Has made strides in the passing game as well, and should be a nice all around threat for me.  Deuce McAlister is gone, so Pierre will get a lot more carries this year.  He had 12 tds last year in a limited role, and as he’s in line for all the goal lines, I want more! Be scared.  Be very scared.

forecast: 1300 total yards, 15 total tds

Ahmad Bradshaw: You’re all going to want this guy.  Well, those who are in the area and watch the giants games on tv.  This guy is lightning in a bottle, and I love watching him run.  He hasn’t had many carries, but that’ll change this year with derrick ward gone.  Ward had 1000 yards in a backup role last year, and I don’t see why Bradshaw can’t at least match that.  He also does some return work, and could give me a nice little boost there.  If he can get 200 carries (ward only had something like 184 last year), he’ll be one of the best flex options in the league.

Forecast: 1000 yards, 4 tds

Rashard Mendenhall: Willie Parker is losing his touch, and even if he doesn’t, Mendenhall’s the goal line back and should vulture away a nice bunch of tds.  Not sure what sort of production to expect, but should be a valuable player on my roster for the rest of the season.

Earnest Graham: he’s involved in a wicked timeshare between 3 backs, and the team recently said that they were committed to using all 3 of them.  Though of the 3, Graham is the likely goal line back, and if he can get a good chunk of the carries, he’ll be more than worth his draft spot.

Tight End:

Chris Cooley: extremely underrated this year because of his lone td last year, but if you look at his numbers for his career: 6, 7, 6, 8, 1 td.  Yeah, that 1 td is likely an aberration.  He’ll be back to his 6-8 td form, but if you add his 80+ receptions and 850 yards, waddya know, he’s suddenly dallas clark at a 5 round discount!

Forecast: 900 yards, 6 tds

New York Giants Defense:They’re clearly one of the best defenses in real life, but just didn’t do enough last year for fantasy purposes.  They scored relatively little points for what you’d expect, but having Osi Umenyiora or however you spell it should help a lot.  I expect them to be a top 3 defense this year.

Wide Receivers:

Andre Johnson: What the heck… I have Andre Johnson?!?  AWESOME!  This guy is an absolute beast when healthy.  My only concern for this guy is that I hope he and matt schaub play the whole season, and he’s never had double digit tds before.  This could be the year that that changes.

forecast: 1400 yards, 10 tds

Chad Ochocinco: What a bargain for a top tier wr.  I say top tier b/c of his career before last year: 6 consecutive years of 16 games played, 1150+ yards, and 5+ tds.  In a year where Palmer was out, and the backup qbs were pathetic, I’ve fully erased last year from my mind and labeled it an abberation.  By mid season some of you will be looking back at the draft results and say “wow i can’t believe this guy fell that far” or “i should’ve taken him over X”.

forecast: 1250 yards, 8 tds

TJ Houshmandzadeh: Spelled that without looking.  In a year where the uber consistent chad ochocinco barely passed 500 yards, housh still had 92 receptions for 900 yards.  He’s now in seattle with Hasselbeck, who loves to throw, and I expect great things.  The difference now is that he’s the top dog and not a close second.  He was also the goal line receiver in cincy, and should do the same in seattle.  Something like 2 years ago is in order here.

forecast: 110+ receptions, 1200 yards, 11 tds

Steve Breaston: I didn’t even know this about him, since most leagues do not have return yards, but Boobston also had 900 return yards last year, which more than makes up for his low td totals.  Should still play a prominent role in the offense this year as the slot receiver, and if the madden curse hits the fitz, he’ll be the no. 2.  Money.

Nate Burleson: Essentially the no. 2 on seattle, should have a very nice year.  Deion Branch should be the no. 2, but he’s been so ineffective and can’t stay on the field and is already hurt, so the doors are open for Burleson to have another big year for the 2nd or 3rd time in his career.  I like it.

Josh Morgan: The niners need so much help at WR it’s not even funny.  Morgan is a young guy with a lot of potential, and had a couple of good games last year.  Many think he’ll elevate his game and be the top WR on the team, especially with crabtree being crabby about his contract.  But typically there’s never a fantasy relevant 49er receiver, so I’ll have to say Morgan’s future is on the waiver wire.

Mungchung

QB:

Tom Brady: Top qb in the league right now with all his weapons back and more from his historic 50 td season.  Foolish to expect even 40+, but upper end of 30 is still an extremely good fantasy season (see: Drew Brees).  Start him and forget him.

Forecast: 4200 yards, 36 tds, 13 picks

Jay Cutler: Some draft him as a starter (albeit a very risky one), so he’s a nice backup to have.  However, I don’t think he’ll have a good year.  Guy’s a whiny crybaby and throws too many picks.  Having Brandon Marshall will help anyone, so with guys like Hester, who’s inexperienced at the position, there’ll be a lot of miscommunications and more picks.  Not a lot of options for Cutler to throw to.  He’ll be a bye week filler or a bad starter.

forecast:  3600 yards, 24 tds, 18 picks

Running Backs:

Mojo Drew: You all know I love this guy.  In 3 seasons as a backup, he’s averaged just under 13 tds a year.  Not that I think his td totals will jump that much, but if you add yardage to that, he’ll make the case for a top 2 pick next year.  His receiving numbers will stay the same, but his rushing total will probably break 1000 for the first time.  As the WNBA says, Expect Great.

Forecast: 1650 total yards, 15 tds

Joseph Addai: Talk about risk/reward, a former first round fantasy pick has fallen a long way.  Critics point to the fact that he’ll be splitting with Donald Brown, but remember in his rookie year, he split with Rhodes and still had a very useful fantasy season.  He’s risky to play as your no. 2 rb, but he definitely has the potential to pay some dividends.  I expect a rebound year, but nothing great.

forecast: 1100 total yards, 7 tds

Beanie Wells: Nice situation, as his only competition is a guy who only managed a 2.8 ypc average last year.  However, this guy is very fragile, and couldn’t even stay healthy in college.  If he doesn’t miss at least 3 games this year, I’ll be shocked.  Has the talent to produce though when he’s on the field, as his first preseason game (missed the first 2 due to injury) will show.  I think your expectations are too high though, whatever they are, with the successes of the rookie backs last year.  Sub 1000 yard season is almost guaranteed here.
*EDIT* I saw highlights of his first preseason game, and wow, he looked really friggin’ good.  I’ll raise my forecast just a little bit to compensate, but I still think he misses too many games to get over 1000 yards.

forecast: 800 yards, 6 tds…… edit: 950 yards, 7 tds.

Le’Ron McClain: Take a wait and see approach here, but you’ll most likely drop him.  He’ll get some short yardage and goal line work for sure, but won’t touch the ball enough to warrant a roster spot on a fantasy team.  They moved him over to fullback fulltime, and it’ll be ray rice and willis mcgahee doing most of the rushing work.  Well if one gets injured or proves ineffective mcclain could get more touches, but at this point in time it’s not likely.

Shonn Greene: Same as mcclain, wait and see.  He’s talented, but he won’t get playing time with thomas jones and leon washington ahead of him.  However, jones is dissatisfied with his current contract, and has a decent chance of being traded.  Outside of a trade or injury though, I don’t see greene having much (any) fantasy value though.

Wide Receivers:

Randy Moss: not talking about him.  He’s good, and you know it.

forecast: 1300 yards, 16 tds

Hines Ward: Getting old, and big ben and the steelers aren’t exactly prolific in the passing game.  Big Ben still does rely on him a lot though, so he should still be a good enough player.  Don’t expect to be wow-ed though.  Korean pride!

Forecast: 950 yards, 7 tds

Bernard Berrian: Big play threat, gets a nice boost with Favre at the helm, but he only caught 48 passes last year.  That sucks, man.  Needs to raise that up quite a bit, but here’s to thinking he can:

forecast: 65 receptions, 1000 yards, 6 tds

Donnie Avery: Don’t like him.  He’s the no. 1 on a bad team with a once pretty good qb, but hasn’t shown remote signs of life in a few years now.  Not to mention he’s already hurt, though he should be able to play in week 1.  I think he’ll be one of those players that breaks out of nowhere in his 3rd year, but too bad for you this is only his second.

forecast: 800 yards, 5 tds

Mark Clayton: Baltimore’s coaching staff has to be concerned about Derrick Mason’s brief retirement.  They’ll probably draw more plays up for Clayton this year to have a quality receiver left when Mason retires probably after this year.  If clayton can deliver, he’ll be able to have a career year.  See how he’s used in the offense before deciding what to do with him.

Earl Bennett: my personal pick to be the best receiver in chicago this year, he played with cutler in college for a year while he was a freshman, and they’ve been rebuilding that connection.  Shows promise, and he may move ahead of Avery on your team as your primary backup at wr.

Tight End:

Jason Witten: Could push for the top spot at TE this year in fantasy.  With no TO, Romo will likely rely on witten more than he has already.  Something like what he did 2 seasons ago isn’t out of the question here.

Forecast: 1050 yards, 8 tds

Tennessee Defense: a solid unit, but lost its heart and soul (Albert Haynesworth) this past offseason, so it’s hard to say how they’ll do this year.  Should still be a solid unit, but I’m willing to say they’ll fall out of the top 5.

Moon Balla

QB:

Kurt Warner: He’s 38, but can still air it out like a champ, though he does tend to turn the ball over a lot (picks, fumbles).  Can’t expect another year like last though.  He’ll likely regress.  Not that much, but enough for you to kick yourself for drafting him where you did.  Still has boldin, fitz, and boobston to throw to though, so that’s a huge plus.

Forecast:  4000 yards, 26 tds, 16 picks, 8 lost fumbles

Matt Cassel: Don’t like him this year.  He proved he’s pretty good last year, but remember, he was in NE.  They’re solid offensively and defensively, and Kansas City is… not.  He also went from having Moss and Welker to Dwayne Bowe and… Amani Toomer.  If he still had Tony Gonzalez, I’d be willing to roll the dice with him, but he’s gone too.  Ouch.

Forecast: 3600 yards, 20 tds, 16 picks

RBs:

Brian Westbrook: We’ve already talked about this: can he stay healthy?  When he is, he’s a top 5 player.  He’s always battling something though, so that’s quite scary (has never played 16 games in a season). But when he can potentially get you over 2000 total yards like in 07, how can you not take the risk?

forecast: 1500 total yards, 11 tds

Steve Slaton: Only real thing to be careful of here is a sophomore slump.  Definitely possible, as he wasn’t even named a starter or even primary backup at the start of last year with garbage ahead of him.  Perhaps the coaches didn’t think he’d do well from what they saw of him, and last year was a fluke?  I’m willing to bet not, but hey it’s always fun to think the worst right? Right.  No real changes to his situation, but after a very nice fantasy season, will he improve or regress?

forecast: 1400 total yards, 8 tds

Ray Rice: slated to start ahead of mcgahee, should have a top notch fantasy season.  The only question at this point is how many tds he’ll get, and if he’ll get goal lines.  Definitely talented though, so if he can score more than 0 tds like last year and bring that up to 7+, he’ll be money.  Our league’s version of deangelo this year:  flex spot player who performs like a first or second rounder.

forecast: 1300 total yards, 9 tds

Donald Brown: I liked him a lot in college last year, but he was a one year wonder.  The indy coaching staff like him enough to say that he’ll be getting a significant number of touches per game though, so that bodes well.  Addai should be the better back, but I do think Brown will have a solid rookie campaign with enough touches.

forecast: 900 yards, 6 tds

Larry Johnson: First and biggest concern here is durability.  He’s missed 12 games in the past 2 years, which is almost a full season.  Ran a very nice 4.5 ypc last year, but had barely more carries than last year’s backup in NY (derrick ward).  If KC can improve their offense so they can run the ball more, LJ could be fantasy relevant once again.  When healthy, he’s a td machine.

forecast:  1100 yards, 10 tds

Lesean McCoy: Won’t be fantasy relevant unless/until Westbrook is hurt.  Only reason to keep him is because you have Westbrook.

Wide Receivers:

Roddy White: Great player no doubt, but with the addition of Tony Gonzo, will likely lose some tds.  Well, not like he had a lot to begin with, so while the total could stay the same, the amount he could’ve gotten without gonzo there will always be on the back of your mind.  Atl had no viable TE last year, and if gonzo repeats his 1000 yard, 10 td campaign, roddy’s gonna be hurtin’.

forecast: 1200 yards, 7 tds

Marques Colston: One of my top mid round bargains, he’ll likely come back to form and put up pro bowl numbers.  He’s healthy, Brees is healthy, no wr acquisitions = money.

forecast: 1300 yards, 10 tds

Santonio Holmes: Nice boost in value due to the steelers superbowl run, but may not be so useful in fantasy life.  With big ben throwing, it’s hard to truly advocate Holmes as a receiver.  Even when Big Ben threw for 34 tds, he only caught 8.  Could be another year of what-if’s for Holmes.

forecast: 980 yards, 7 tds

Percy Harvin: Hate him for fantasy purposes.  His value in college was his dual threat capabilities: he had 1929 receiving yards and 1852 rush yards in 3 seasons.  I don’t care who you are, you are NOT running that much in the NFL as a WR.  If you take those numbers out and use only his receiving numbers, they stink like a pile of… stuff.  That said, he could become a useful long-ball threat in the nfl with time, but I liken him to Ted Ginn, and doubt he’ll be useful for his first 2 years.

Tight End:

Jeremy Shockey: Nice late round bargain, though obviously comes with a buncha risk.  Once of the upper tier TEs, it’s feasible that he could go back to that as he and Brees have developed a nice rapport this offseason and preseason.

forecast: 700 yards, 6 tds

San Diego Defense: once a top tier unit, they did not do well last year in the absence of shawne merriman.  Well he’s back, and is ready to help make this defense one to be feared again.  Their overall numbers weren’t too bad last year, but if you add 10-15 more sacks (which consequently leads to less points scored), they could be a formidable unit once again.

Ninetales Returns

Quarterbacks:

Matt Ryan: it would appear that you have the least star power at this position.  I know you had to take him b/c you missed out on a lot of the earlier qbs, but it could hurt you.  He only threw 16 tds last year with 11 picks, though as a rookie that’s pretty damn good.  Gotta hope he makes strides in his second year, or he could hurt you for a buncha weeks as he would be very hard to drop.  That said, I think he won’t be able to help doing much better, with the same team and now Gonzo there.

forecast:  3600 yards, 22 tds, 15 picks

Trent Edwards: Here, you’re hoping the TO effect is a freakin’ huge one, cause he only went 11-10 in 14 games last year (though he did add 3 rushing).  You need to double the td totals for him to be useful.  He might do it too.  Last year, Buffalo had nobody.  Lee Evans was pretty much their only receiver, with a lot of low end talent surrounding him at wr and te, and unfortunately Lee Evans just isn’t quite good enough to be a true no. 1.  But with TO, suddenly they have a nice wr duo that could do some damage, and make Edwards’ job easier.  And even if not, Edwards will be more than good enough to be a bye week player, as he usually doesn’t give more negatives than positives.

forecast: 3200 yards, 21 total tds, 13 picks

Running Backs:

Matt Forte: Carried my team last year in a different league, this guy put up top 10 numbers in his first year.  Can he do it again?  As I’ve said many times throughout this (ridonculously long) post, I’m scared of sophomore slumps.  But even if he doesn’t, it’s going to be very hard for him to improve upon his numbers last year, especially since he was a rookie and caught everyone by surprise.  Now they’ll be focused on stopping him, only slightly worried about Jay Cutler since they don’t have any star receivers.  Cutler also doesn’t throw to his backs that much, which could really cut into Forte’s receiving numbers, which were awesome last year.  I’m looking for a slight regression here.  Nothing too crazy, but people may be disappointed (since everyone always looks for big improvements).

forecast: 1600 total yards, 13 total tds

Reggie Bush: as I said last year, this guy will be your X-factor.  Honestly though, at least for us, it doesn’t matter if his running isn’t that good.  As long as he gets a decent amount of carries, you know he’s getting his receptions so his value gets a VERY nice boost in ppr leagues.  For his career, he’s averaged 5.6 catches per game.  Amazing.  Add to that return yards and tds, and as long as he’s healthy, he’ll put up a solid number of points for you week in and week out.  I’m hoping this too cause I took him in my money league.  His rushing average has increased in 3 consecutive years: 3.6 to 3.7 to 3.8… will he get to 3.9?  On the flipside, his games played have decreased in each of those years from 16 to 12 to 10.  He better stay healthy.  Go Bush!

forecast: 1500 total yards (800 receiving on 80 receptions), 9 tds *if he plays all 16*

Lendale White: yuck.  TD or Bust last year, he’s back after losing 30 pounds by not drinking tequila, supposedly.  I guess he drank a gallon a day, huh?  Now that he’s in better shape, will he get more carries?  Chris Johnson has got to be the incumbent starter, and obviously has more upside, so will they give more carries to white?  He also has to contend with rookie Javon Ringer, who has gone unnoticed this offseason despite a very good college year last year.  I think he can make a splash.  Well, just hope lendale can vulture away double digit tds again this year, and he’ll be a nice all or nothing bye week play.

forecast: 750 yards, 12 tds

Felix Jones: Should have a great year if he stays healthy.  He only got 30 carries last year before getting hurt, but went for 266 yards with just that (an 8.9 ypc avg).  B/c of Barber’s struggles last year carrying the load himself, the ‘Boys are committed to using a rbbc, and you can be sure Felix is the primary backup.  It’ll all depend on how many carries a game he’ll get: the more carries, the less return work he does, and vice versa.  Look for a solid year that gets him drafted within the top half of drafts next year.

Tim Hightower: I hated him the whole offseason, but in a couple of preseason games he’s shown that he can actually run the ball (2.8 ypc avg last yaer).  Beanie was actually frighteningly good yesterday in game action, which doesn’t bode well for hightower, but regardless, they’ll be splitting carries unless beanie turns out to be absolutely amazing.  Beanie is fragile as glass too, so he’s bound to get hurt.  Also, Hightower will be the goal line back.  I think a success this year would be what Jon Stewart did last year: 8-900 yards, 10 tds.

Sammy Morris: The guy’s hurt, and hasn’t practiced since the preseason opener.  However, if healthy, you have to believe he’s at the top spot or two on the rb depth chart in NE.  He ran a very nice 4.7 ypc clip last year, though he didn’t get enough carries to be all that relevant.  NE has used 3-4 backs per game in recent years, but perhaps with the OC gone, the new one will use only 2-3?  Hope that’s the case, and that Morris is at the top.

Wide Receivers:

Calvin Johnson: Nicknamed Megatron for his huge hands, he showed the world just why he was hyped as a once a decade talent last year, putting up 1300 yards and 12 tds on an 0-16 team with horrible qb play.  His potential is out of this world.  But of course, the more the lions struggle, the harder it is for him to put up the numbers.  That said, Culpepper has looked good and will start the season in all likelihood, as stafford has struggled.  CJ is fast, strong, taller than randy moss, and catches everything thrown his way.  I expect a MONSTER year.  M-M-M-M-MONSTER KILL!!!

forecast: 1600 yards, 17 tds (i know, this is so bold.  but i have him in my keeper league so… gogogo!)

Reggie Wayne: Now Peyton’s true top target with Harrison gone for good, he’s always been an upper tier receiver who never quite received the recognition he deserved.  Besides, you don’t have to be that good to put up monster numbers with Peyton Manning.  As the no. 1, I expect a big spike in his TDs and yardage.  Look at 2 years ago, when Harrison only played a couple of games.  Wayne went for 1500 and 10.  And as his top target for years, Harrison was a perennial lock for a BARE MINIMUM of 1100 yards and 10 tds (http://www.nfl.com/players/marvinharrison/careerstats?id=HAR608874).  Yeah, I can see that.

forecast: 1500 yards, 12 tds

Eddie Royal: I liked him a lot going into this year.  He was a little inconsistent last year, but forgivable as a rookie.  This year, I think he becomes Orton’s top weapon in Denver because he’s a great possession receiver, and Marshall is a crybaby nicknamed “baby TO” by scouts before he even got in the league.  Now he’s showing why.  In all likelihood, this won’t affect his games played, but you never know.  In ’05, someone as great as TO was suspended by the team for the final NINE games for being too damn annoying.  NINE GAMES!!!  If anything close to that happens, royal will truly become WR royalty!

forecast: 1100 yards, 7 tds

Donald Driver: The no. 2 on green bay, he’s been very consistent throughout his career.  If Rodgers comes out firing again this year, he should have another very solid year.  Would be nice for him to improve his td total though: only 7 in the past 2 years.  Pretty much a lock for 1000 yards though, so he’s a nice flex play.  Just how good he’ll be will depend on his tds.  With young guys Jordy Nelson and James Jones around and making a little bit of noise, I’m willing to say his tds don’t jump.

forecast: 1050 yards, 4 tds.

Brian Robiskie: a rookie receiver who could make some noise thanks to stone-hands Edwards on the same team.  If Edwards doesn’t prove himself to be reliable this year, the qbs could look elsewhere, and Robisikie is the likely beneficiary.  BUT(T), rookie receivers rarely live up to their hype, and it takes them a while to get used to the position in general.  Robiskie isn’t too fast either, though he’s tall (6’3″).  He’s weak as hell too, not even benching 225 seven times, unless he just didn’t do the drill.  Scouts say he’s the most nfl ready receiver though, so hopefully he can be this year’s eddie royal.

Tight End:

Tony Gonzalez: Don’t need to say anything here.  He’s one of the best ever.  Don’t expect him to duplicate his numbers from last year with KC, but a good 800 yards and 8 tds is definitely attainable.

forecast: that’s my forecast above.

NYJ defense:They were a good unit last year, and they should be one of the best this year.  Baltimore’s defensive coordinator is now their head coach, and the Jets have a lot of good pieces and with a better coach could easily be a top 5 defense.  Some guys from balt followed rex ryan to the jets too, so just added pieces there.  I was targeting the jets, but when I got the Giants, no point in me going for them.  Just hope the Jets offense isn’t stagnant, leaving the defense on the field all the time.

Wow so I’m finally done with the teams’ individual player analysis.  So now, I’ll try to predict where we’ll all end up in the standings, at least at the end of the regular season.  This takes into account not only my perceived quality of your draft, but the knowledge that you have or have readily available, and your enthusiasm for the game.  However, this does NOT take into account the effect of kickers, IDPs and defenses.  IDPs and kickers b/c as I said, too hard to predict what they’ll do week to week or over a full season, and b/c team defenses are also inconsistent week to week, with some weeks getting tds and a lot of turnovers, and some weeks not doing much at all.

Here goes nothing!

1. TOM KIM CHAMPION – HAHAHA you know you expected this.  Seriously, I know I’m a little (read: extremely) biased, but I once again love my players this year.  Hear me out before you just think I’m being a homer for my own team.  When looking at the other teams, most will have trouble deciding who to play in that second flex spot.  I, on the other hand, while having decent (but not great) depth, have 3 clear cut top rbs, and 3 clear cut top wrs, and they’ll take all 6 spots while I intermingle for bye weeks.  Normally I’d have a lack of star power at qb, but I got rivers here.  My big x-factors are deangelo and pierre.  Deangelo’s lookin’ sick nasty so far though, and stewart’s battling an injury at the moment, but he won’t have the kind of year he did last year.  Pierre Thomas has also never had a full workload over a full season, and could break down now that he will have to.  But since I don’t expect either to drop off that far, I smell a championship coming, and boy does it smell good.
2.Kevin – I think you can be a team no one wants to play this year… except for week 5.  Week 5 you lose jennings, rodgers, LT, and vincent jackson.  That’s a loss.  Otherwise your depth is solid.  But your team’s powerhouse status will largely depend on how LT and barber do this year.  If they can go back to how they were before last season, you’ll be hard to beat.  Careful with that second flex spot though, as you have a lot of guys of similar value that you could plug in there.
3. Timmy – Your reign as top seed is in jeapordy this year.  You’re another team that is hard to evaluate now.  Injury concerns with Colston and Westbrook, and effectiveness concerns with shockey and harvin.  Nice rb depth, but not so much for receivers.  But your team has a lot of guys I wanted, so I do believe they’ll get it done for you.  Win or lose, you’ll probably play in a lot of close weeks with outcomes determined by the extras (k, idp, def).
4. Juyeon – It was a hard decision for me whether to put you ahead of yeaegi or vice versa.  However, beginners tend to have good luck in fantasy games, at least in my experience.  I’m always a juggernaut in my first year playing anything, with no knowledge.  So I had to give you the nod here.  Peterson and Peyton are going to be fearsome, but I suspect your team will be sneaky strong, not really winning through TDs but through yardage and the PPR setting.
5. Yeaegi – Your team will be carried by your receivers and receiving stats from your backs.  However, your lack of star power at the qb position is a bit of a worry.  Also, I think you’ll have 1-3 close losses due to playing the wrong person in your slot.  You look to have the best depth in the league, and that could lead to a few miscalls on who to start.  Could end up being a powerhouse if bush gets it going and stays healthy due to the ppr settings, and if matty ice can take it up a notch.
6. Jason – It’s really hard to evaluate your team at this point.  You’re very top heavy with the Brady and Moss tandem, not to mention having mojo drew and potentially the top TE this year in Witten.  But I have questions about your depth, and I think your achilles’ heel will be in your flex spots and deciding who to play there.  Of course, if Brady and Moss hook up for that many tds again, it would take the place of 4 players easily.  Probably end up going 4-0 or so, winning the first week or two after bye weeks start, but then I think your lack of depth will show and you’ll start to lose games.
7. Dan Bae – You’ll either be on the borderline of the playoffs, or be one of those teams that isn’t scary looking but just keeps finding ways to win.  It’s not all about star power (which you kinda lack), but you have a team that could be great altogether, especially once lynch comes back from suspension.
8. Josiah – Similarly to jason and teju, you look to be very top heavy with Portis, Turner, and Romo being the ones to carry your team.  Too many concerns here though to rank you in the top half though, with guys like braylon edwards, willie parker, kellen winslow, and brandon marshall… all once belonging in the elite class, but come with questions of health, performance, or attitude.  With a good backup TE in dustin keller, your big X factor will be Edwards.  If you get anywhere near the edwards of 2 seasons ago, it will give your team a very nice boost into playoff contention
9. Teju(das) – Sorry, but your team has too many question marks for me to rank you higher than this.  A lot of injury concerns already with stewart, moreno, and sjax, and it’s unfortunate that they’re all from the same position.  I think your team will basically consist of 4 players, and whenever you get some good production out of other guys you could get the win, but will lack consistency.  But you never know, as your guys have a lot of potential.  Whether they can bring it out for you when you need it though is another question entirely.
10. Patrick – your team will be carried most likely by your running backs; too many questions at your wr position with bryant and gonzalez.  Depth is pretty good overall, but unless Gore breaks out, you won’t be a heavy hitter, since I expect a big downslide from thomas jones too.  You’ll need to really use your depth to your advantage during the bye weeks of 4-10.  Plus you tend to stop checking after a while.

Ok that’s it!  Keep in mind these rankings are purely speculative, as I have no idea how certain players will do, but if I have a question about them, I downgrade your team.  Also remember that a top defense or IDP player can really swing a LOT of weeks your way.  And I’m not just saying this when I say that everyone’s team looks pretty strong, and no one looks like they’ll definitely be weak.  But someone has to be first, and someone has to be last, so this is just my preseason prediction.  If you don’t like where you are in the standings (and you probably don’t cause you’re not first!) get into the game, stay into it, and make sure you take care of your team and make some good trades to show me and my rankings up!

See you at the top.